Reds vs Brewers Preview: Race for National League Central Heating Up

The Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds are neck and neck atop the National League Central. While the Reds have been a laughingstock in recent years, their resurgence seems real thanks to an influx of young, exciting talent.

With the All-Star break upon us, the Reds and Brewers will meet for a three-game set this weekend at American Family Field. This marks the second series between the teams this MLB season. Milwaukee took three of four games last month in Cincinnati.

Read on for our Reds vs Brewers preview.

Reds Resurgence

Are the Cincinnati Reds for real? It sure seems that way. Winners of four straight and seven of 10, the Reds have surged into first place in the NL Central. At 48-39, they lead the Milwaukee Brewers by two games.

As such, the Reds’ postseason outlook has changed quite a bit. Since spring training, their divisional odds have skyrocketed from +6600 to +150. Oddsmakers still like Milwaukee (EV) to outlast them, but the gap has shrunk significantly. The Reds are currently +195 to make the playoffs.

What’s been behind the Reds’ resurgence? Offense, offense and offense. Did we say, offense? Rookie shortstop Elly De La Cruz has electrified Cincinnati’s lineup. Since his June 6 call-up from Triple-A Louisville, the 21-year-old Dominican is batting .318 with 4 homers and 14 RBI in 110 at-bats.

He also has eight doubles, two triples and 11 stolen bases, along with a robust .892 OPS. Despite having appeared in only 26 games, De La Cruz now has the second-shortest odds for NL Rookie of the Year at +350. Granted, Arizona outfielder Corbin Carroll remains a heavy -450 favorite.

De La Cruz isn’t alone in his contributions. First baseman Spencer Steer has slugged a team-high 14 home runs and is tied with outfielder Jake Fraley for the team lead in RBI, with 51. Second baseman Jonathan India is having a solid season too, with 13 homers, 48 RBI and 12 stolen bases. Altogether, the Reds rank fifth in baseball in runs scored and 10th in batting average.

Brewers Looking Up

The Brewers entered Thursday with a 46-41 record, good for second place in the division. While they remain an even money favorite to win the NL Central, the Reds’ rise has clouded their outlook.

Milwaukee had won five of its last seven games before All-Star closer Devin Williams imploded in the ninth inning of Wednesday’s 4-3 loss to the rival Cubs. Williams allowed three runs (two earned) on three hits. The outing snapped a nine-game scoreless streak, during which the right-hander had collected eight saves.

Earlier in the day, Milwaukee placed first baseman Rowdy Tellez on the 10-Day Injured List with right forearm inflammation. Normally a main source of power for Milwaukee, Tellez hasn’t homered since May 22 and is hitting just .213 with 12 homers a .672 OPS.

The Brewers don’t have an obvious replacement for Tellez, though they could look to Brian Anderson to play more first base. Unfortunately, with a .231 average, Anderson hasn’t been much of a threat at the plate.

Odds Outlook

Remember this as you assess the odds in our Reds vs Brewers preview: Cincinnati has been the most profitable team in baseball for bettors. The Reds are an MLB-best 55-32 against the run line this season. That includes a 29-14 mark on the road.

Conversely, the Brewers are just 40-47 ATS, including 18-25 at home. Notably, they haven’t fared any better when favored (16-27).

Game 1

• Corbin Burnes vs Andrew Abbott (Friday, 8:10 p.m. ET)

Burnes hasn’t been nearly as dominant this season, yet he still owns a respectable 4.00 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. He held Cincinnati to three runs over six innings in a 5-4, 11-inning win on June 2. The 28-year-old right-hander is currently a +5000 longshot to win the NL Cy Young after opening at +500.

The Reds will counter with Abbott in the Reds vs Brewers matchup. The 24-year-old southpaw has been sensational as a rookie, going 4-0 with a 1.21 ERA and 0.88 WHIP over his first six starts. According to ESPN, Abbott is the first pitcher since 1900 to notch 40 strikeouts while allowing five or fewer runs in his first six outings.

Milwaukee is a -129 favorite to win outright, while Cincinnati is priced at +119. The projected total remains 8, with the Over receiving slightly shorter odds (-115/-105).

Game 2

• Colin Rea vs Luke Weaver (Saturday, 4:10 p.m. ET)

Rea allowed two runs over 6.2 innings in Sunday’s 6-3 win over Pittsburgh, his longest outing since 2016. For the season, he is 5-4 with a 4.40 ERA. He beat the Reds on June 3, limiting them to three runs over five frames in a 10-8 victory, per baseball scores.

Cincinnati will counter with Weaver, who is 2-2 with a 6.72 ERA. Home runs (15 allowed in 69.2 innings) have been an issue for the right-hander.

Game 3

• TBD vs TBD (Sunday, 2:10 p.m. ET)

Each team has yet to announce its starter for the final game before the All-Star break in our Reds vs Brewers preview.

For the best MLB bets today, odds, analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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