Tigers vs Twins Series Preview: Minnesota Seeks to Increase Lead

The Detroit Tigers visit the Minnesota Twins for a four-game series starting Thursday. The Tigers vs Twins series preview has the Twins favored to win all four games. Even at 35-33, the Twins are the class of the AL Central.

But the struggles of everybody in the AL Central is good news for Detroit. Despite being 27-39, the Tigers are just seven games out of first place. This is a big series for the Tigers. If Detroit goes 3-1, the Tigers can pull within five games. If the Twins go 3-1, the Tigers will fall to nine games out and that could be it for Detroit.

It’s far more likely the Twins go 3-1 than Detroit, however. Even though Minnesota is struggling a bit this season, the Twins are 26-14 as a favorite this season. The Twins have been poor underdogs, going 9-15, but Minnesota wins the games it should win. Minnesota should be favored in all four games in this series. You expect nothing less from a team with MLB playoff odds of -200 to reach the postseason. The Tigers are +2000 to make the playoffs.

The Tigers are 21-35 as an underdog this season. That record falls to 9-20 as a road underdog. That explains why only two teams in the American League have fewer wins than Detroit. The Tigers are actually playing better than their stats suggest. With a run differential of -86, Detroit is playing like a 24-42 team. That’s three games worse than its actual record.

Thursday’s Game

The Tigers vs Twins series preview shows Minnesota as huge favorites to win the opening game. Sonny Gray and the Twins are -210 over Matthew Boyd. It’s a huge pitching mismatch in Minnesota’s favor. The Twins are 6-6 against left-handed starters, scoring 3.67 runs per game.

Minnesota averages 4.55 runs against right-handers, so the offense struggles a bit against southpaws. The Tigers are 6-6 when Boyd starts despite allowing 5.00 runs per game. Detroit has allowed five runs or more in five of Boyd’s last six starts. That doesn’t bode well against Gray.

Minnesota is 7-6 when Gray takes the mound, but allows just 3.46 runs per game. With Detroit averaging 3.12 runs on the road against right-handed starters, the Twins should score enough to win. It’s just a question of wanting to lay -210 with Gray.

Friday’s Game

The Tigers haven’t named a starter for Friday. The Twins will throw Joe Ryan and again will be massive favorites. Minnesota is 8-5 in the games Ryan has started and 4-1 when he starts at home.

The Twins have allowed 2.4 runs per game in Ryan’s home starts. It doesn’t make much difference who the Tigers start in this one. The Twins will send the better pitcher to the mound and have the better team. As long as the odds are reasonable, there’s no reason not to back the Twins in this game, as well.

Saturday’s Game

The Tigers vs Twins series preview shows Joey Wentz as the scheduled starter for the Tigers. That’s not good news for Detroit. Wentz has been dismal this season.

He sports a 1-6 record and a 7.23 ERA. Detroit is 4-1 when Wentz starts and doesn’t get a decision. As bad as the Tigers are, going 5-7 with Wentz on the mound is a bit of an accomplishment. It’s not that bad of a record.

This time it’s Minnesota’s turn to not list a starting pitcher. The Twins have several options and they should all be better than Wentz. Expect the Twins to be favored once again. But the line will likely be a little lower than in the first two games due to their starting pitcher. This one certainly won’t be among the best games on the day’s MLB schedule.

Sunday’s Game

Detroit hasn’t named a starter for this game, either. The Twins are expected to go with Louie Varland, who has been pretty average. The Twins are 4-5 in the games he’s started. The Twins will remain at home and host the Boston Red Sox after this series. With Boston not playing great, there shouldn’t be any looking ahead in this game.

The Twins need to be focused against a division opponent and take care of business. Minnesota has a chance to give itself a little breathing room in the standings. The Twins are likely to be averaged-sized favorites here and they should take the series. At least, that’s the way to bet these four games.

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