2024 Würth 400 Odds: Favorites, sleepers for Cup Series in Dover
A chaotic finish in Talladega gives way to a unique challenge of the 'Monster Mile'
A late crash in Talladega saw another new NASCAR Cup Series winner in 2024. Tyler Reddick earned his first win at the track on a chaotic final lap of the race. Now, the grid goes from one of the fastest tracks on the calendar to one of the unique ovals: Dover Motor Speedway. The 2024 Würth 400 Odds point to another close fight at the front.
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2024 Würth 400 Odds: Favorites for victory
Kyle Larson (+450)
Larson leads the NASCAR odds this week in addition to leading the championship. Despite crossing the line 21st in Talladega, Larson holds a 15-point lead thanks to more stage wins than anyone else on the grid.
He’s a solid driver in Dover, historically. He won the fall race in 2019 from second on the grid and qualified on pole in this race in 2018. He’s second only to Martin Truex Jr. for the best average finish in Dover over the last 10 events there (eighth). Larson’s had consecutive poor finishes but that could turn around this weekend.
Martin Truex Jr. (+600)
Truex Jr.’s second to Larson in the championship despite a slight downturn in results. After notching his fifth consecutive top-10 result in Richmond, he’s finished outside the top 10 drivers in the last three races. He’s now the only driver in the top six of the standings without a win this season.
Luckily, he’s a standout driver in Dover. Truex Jr. won this event last year in 2019 and 2007 (his first Cup Series victory). He’s a yearly lock for at least the top five, with seven such results in the last 10 events there. Jimmie Johnson was the last driver to win back-to-back events in this race in 2014 and 2015. Truex Jr. could do it this weekend.
William Byron (+750)
Byron managed to avoid the last-lap chaos and finished seventh in Talladega. Through the NASCAR schedule so far, Byron has seven top-10 results out of the 10 events. No one else in the field can match that consistency.
His track record in Dover is good but not great, with nine career races yielding three top-five finishes. He finished fourth in this event last year after leading 193 laps and winning stage one. He could make good on that promise from last year and add yet another Cup Series win this season.
Ross Chastain (+750)
Chastain’s had an uneven run of form lately. Seventh in Austin preceded middle-of-the-pack finishes in Richmond (15th) and Martinsville (14th). A win in stage two in Texas preceded a 32nd-place finish and 13th in Talladega. He’s still ninth on the NASCAR live leaderboard with 277 points, 82 behind Larson.
Like Byron, Chastain had a solid run in Dover in 2023. He won stage two, led 98 laps, and finished just half a second behind Truex Jr. for the win. That was a year after finishing third and leading 86 laps in this event. He can do one better this year and win his first event of the year.
Denny Hamlin (+750)
Hamlin crashed out in Talladega with 34 laps to go and finished 37th after starting 23rd on the grid and leading four laps. Despite his worst result of the season so far, he’s still sixth in the Cup Series standings and comfortably in the playoffs.
He could bounce back this weekend in Dover. His recent track record there is inconsistent but features some great performances, including a win in 2020 and three other top-five finishes since 2018.
There have been some off performances like in 2022 when he finished 21st from second on the grid. He could get out of this short slump with a strong performance this weekend.
Sleepers in Dover
Chase Elliott (+1100)
Elliott’s vaulted to the top three of the Cup Series standings after a 15th-place finish in Talladega. The 2020 champion has finished no lower than 19th in any event this season. Only Truex Jr. can match that.
Elliott won this event in 2022 from fourth on the grid. He also won the fall race in Dover in 2018. Outside of two DNFs because of a crash and engine problems, Elliott’s made the top 12 in each of his last eight starts in Dover. He’s a safer bet than some of the favorites because of his consistency and track record.
Alex Bowman (+1400)
Bowman kept clean through the last-lap mayhem in Talladega to record his fourth top-five finish of the season. It was a nice return to normal after a rough weekend at Texas Motor Speedway.
Bowman’s been one of the best drivers in recent history in Dover. In the last 10 Cup Series races there, he’s behind only Truex Jr. and Larson in average finish. He won this event in 2021 and finished fifth in 2022.
He has another trio of top-five results in that span and could continue his run of finishes near the front again this weekend. At these odds, he’d be a high-reward bet.
Kyle Busch (+1900)
Busch has been inconsistent so far in 2024. He finished 26th, marking the fifth time this season he’s finished 20th or lower. The good NASCAR races have been very good, though, as he’s made the top 10 three times.
His track record in Dover is solid. His three career wins there are behind only Truex Jr., with the most recent one coming in 2017. Last year, he started on pole position and led 25 laps before finishing 21st in the race.
In the last 10 races at Dover, he’s finished in the top 10 five times. That’s good enough to be considered a sleeper here.
Brad Keselowski (+2200)
When will Keselowski finally break through? He’s now finished second two weeks in a row and in the top four another four times this season. He’s come close multiple times in the last year and a half but hasn’t won a race since Talladega in 2021.
Keselowski’s one of the better drivers in Dover on the Cup Series grid by average finish. In his last 10 races there, Keselowski’s made the top 10 five times. It wouldn’t be a big surprise if he finally got that elusive win this weekend.
2024 Würth 400 Odds:Picks for Dover
With Talladega in the rearview, the Cup Series has a different challenge this weekend. Dover’s concrete offers uniform banking in corners and what should be an exciting race.
Of the favorites, Chastain looks like the best option because he’s gunning for a win to secure his playoff spot. Of the sleepers, Elliott could surprise with a second win of the season this weekend.
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