2024 Ag-Pro 300 Odds make Austin Hill the heavy favorite in Talladega
The Richard Childress Racing driver could take win no. 3 this weekend
The Xfinity Series treated NASCAR fans to one of the closest finishes in the sport’s history at Texas Motor Speedway. Sam Mayer took his first win of 2024 by just 0.002 seconds over Ryan Sieg.
This week, the grid heads to Talladega for one of the fastest events on the schedule. Here’s what how the 2024 Ag-Pro 300 Odds stack up ahead of Saturday’s race.
2024 Ag-Pro 300 Odds:Â Favorites
Austin Hill (+400)
Hill’s the favorite by a country mile in this week’s NASCAR odds. Since winning the opening two rounds of the season, the Richard Childress Racing driver’s cooled off but stayed consistent. He’s finished in the top 10 in all but one race this year (Martinsville) and sits third in the Xfinity Series standings.Â
He’s a heavy favorite for good reason. His two wins came in Daytona and Atlanta, the two ovals most similar to Talladega. Six of his eight career Xfinity Series wins came at those two tracks.
Last year, he took pole position in this event before finishing 18th. In 2022, he took pole position in the fall Talladega race. He’s yet to convert strong qualifying results into a win there, but this could be the weekend he breaks through.
AJ Allmendinger (+1100)
Allmendinger’s fresh off his best result of the year with fourth place in Texas. It marks his first top-five finish of the season and keeps him in the top 10 of the Xfinity standings.
His track record in Talladega is good. He won the fall race there in 2022 and has two more top-five results in the Xfinity Series. The same can’t be said for his Cup Series record there but he did perform well in that series on other superspeedways, specifically Daytona.
A strong result last weekend puts him in a great position to build more momentum with a win this week.
Jesse Love (+1200)
Love put the No. 2 Chevy in pole position for the third time this season but he again couldn’t convert that to a win. His ninth-place finish is solid and keeps him in the top five of the standings. He’s on a run of five consecutive top-10 results; only Cole Custer can match that.
His other two pole positions came at Daytona and Atlanta. He led the most laps in both races, which shows his pace on superspeedways. Last year, he won the ARCA Menards Series race in Talladega and led the most laps. He may be a rookie, but it’d be far from surprising if his first Xfinity Series win came this weekend.
Justin Allgaier (+1200)
Allgaier won the first two stages and led the most laps in Texas, but he finished third by the chequered flag. This was still his best result of the NASCAR calendar after his fifth-place finish in Martinsville.
Over his 15-year Xfinity Series career, he’s never won in Talladega, but he’s come close in some races. He finished second in this race in 2016, and in 2017, he led the most laps but finished eighth.
He’s struggled to get consistent results in Talladega. His improvement over the last two races is encouraging, so backing him this weekend is a bet on his momentum over his track record.
Sheldon Creed (+1200)
Creed’s up-and-down 2024 season continued with a 19th-place result in Texas. That marks his fourth result outside of the top 15 this season. Still, he remains in the top 10 of the Xfinity Series standings and could be in for a good result this weekend.
Last year, Creed finished second in this event, which was one of his best results of the season. So far this year, he’s raced well in superspeedways with second in Daytona and fourth in Atlanta. He’s come close to victory multiple times this season alone and eventually has to break through. This weekend could be the time.
Sleepers
Chandler Smith (+1400)
Yes, the championship leader is a sleeper this weekend because of his odds and track record. Texas marked his worst result of the season (15th), but he still holds a 19-point lead in the championship.
Outside of his wins in Phoenix and Richmond, Smith’s been solid on superspeedways. He took fifth in Daytona and second in Atlanta. Last year, he entered the Cup Series YellaWood 500 and had his best result on that level of the season (11th).
He’s never won in Talladega at any level, but his current form suggests he could change that this weekend.
Cole Custer (+1400)
The defending champion finished in the top 10 for the sixth race in a row last week in Texas. No one on the Xfinity Series grid can match that run right now. He had lackluster results in Daytona (13th) and Atlanta (16th) but that’s unusual considering his typical results at those tracks.
Custer finished fourth in this race last year. He had top-five results in the second events in Atlanta (third) an Daytona (fifth) last season as well. He’s steadily improving and has a track record of good results in these formats. A win wouldn’t be surprising.
Parker Retzlaff (+2500)
Retzlaff is the lowest in the standings among all of the drivers on this list. He finished 22nd in Texas and classified 37th in Martinsville the weekend prior. He’s managed just one top-15 result in the last six races.
But it’s what he did before this stretch of the Xfinity Series schedule that gives confidence backing him as a sleeper. Retzlaff took third in Daytona and fifth in Atlanta.
As a rookie last year, his best results came in Daytona (fourth and seventh), and he raced well in Talladega (seventh). He’s never won in any NASCAR level but, with these odds, could be a surprise worth a flyer.
2024 Ag-Pro 300 Odds: Picks for Talladega
The Xfinity Series is back to two races in Talladega this season and this week should be an exciting one after last week’s close finish. As always, Talladega’s odds reflect how unpredictable the winner can be.
Despite that, we like Hill to get his third win of the season this weekend. He’s too dominant on superspeedways and has a solid record in qualifying there we can’t pass up. Of the sleepers, Custer looks like the pick thanks to his uptick in form and history at the track.
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