Cup Series YellaWood 500 Odds: Keselowski Surprises as Talladega Favorite

The Round of 12 continues on in the NASCAR Cup Series this week with the final superspeedway event of the season: the YellaWood 500 at Talladega Superspeedway. The race comes after a close finish in Texas, with William Byron picking up the win and securing a spot in the Round of 8. Talladega’s a unique challenge, given how fast and wide the track is. As such, the Cup Series YellaWood 500 odds are a lot closer than usual.

Get in the fast lane to Yellawood 500 action – Visit Point Spreads now!

Keselowski leads the way this weekend

Brad Keselowski’s one of just two winless drivers in the playoff field. The RFK Racing driver made it this far in the playoffs, thanks to his consistent NASCAR results this year. Eleven top-10 finishes in the regular season and another four in a row during the playoffs have him keeping pace with the leading group.

He leads the odds at +1100. That may be surprising given his form in 2023, but he’s arguably Talladega’s best driver on the grid. He has the most wins (six) at the track of any active driver. His average finish (15th) is one of the best career marks among active drivers. In the first race at Talladega this year, he finished fifth. The last superspeedway race in Daytona saw him take second. He’ll be in the mix for the win this week.

• Three drivers are tied at +1200: Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney, and Chris Buescher.

Logano’s second only to Keselowski in wins at Talladega with three. But the last of those wins came in 2018, and he’s managed just one top-10 finish in his last eight NASCAR races at the track. He’s typically qualified well in those events but he hasn’t translated that to wins.

Blaney has two wins at Talladega in 2019 and 2020. In the six races since those wins, Blaney’s finished in the top 10 three times, including second place in the last two events. He led the most laps in the first Talladega race this season. The only other time he did that was his win in Charlotte. Blaney’s at risk of missing the Round of 8, and a win here would massively improve his chances.

Buescher came on strong to close the regular season with three wins in the final five races. He’s proven so far in the playoffs that that wasn’t flukey; four playoff races have yielded a pair of top-five results. Historically, he’s been an average driver at Talladega with just one top-five result in 16 career races. But that result came in the first Talladega race this year. This year, he’s been the best superspeedway driver in the NASCAR Cup Series. No driver can match his fourth in Daytona, third in Talladega, and a win in Daytona again. He’ll likely be fighting for a win again.

• Four drivers are tied at +1400: Denny Hamlin, Bubba Wallace, Byron, and Chase Elliott.

Hamlin’s the best of the bunch historically at Talladega. Thirty-five career races there have included two wins and another eight top-five finishes. He’s been on pole four times in the last six Cup Series races at Talladega, but that’s led to one win and one other top-five result. In 2023, he’s been solid but unspectacular at superspeedways. His NASCAR results there include 17th and 26th in Daytona and 17th earlier this year in Talladega. He’ll undoubtedly have speed, but it may not be enough for victory.

Wallace was in a great position for a win last week by starting on pole and leading a career-high 111 laps. He ended up third for his best result of 2023. His first win came in the 2021 YellaWood 500 but he’s failed to crack the top 10 in any other race in Talladega in his career. In the first Talladega race this year, he led 35 laps but finished 28th after a crash took him out with one lap to go. He’d be a surprise winner this weekend.

Byron’s the safest of all the playoff contenders, thanks to his win in Texas. He’s been mostly solid in superspeedways this year: 34th in the first Daytona race, seventh in the first Talladega event, and eighth in the regular season finale in Daytona. He’s never won in Talladega with just two top-five finishes in 11 races there. He’d also be a surprise to see in victory lane this weekend.

Elliott’s the top non-playoff driver in NASCAR odds this week for good reason. He’s the best driver on the grid by average finish in Talladega with two career wins there, including this event last year. He won stage 1 in the first Talladega race this year en route to a 12th-place result. In the finale in Daytona, he took fourth. In the playoffs, he’s been one of the most consistent drivers, finishing between sixth and 11th in each contest. He’ll be in the mix for his first win of 2023 this week.

Sleepers in the Cup Series YellaWood 500 odds

Ross Chastain (+2000) went from fifth to finish less than two seconds behind Byron for the victory in Texas last week. He’s been solid but not great in superspeedways on the NASCAR schedule this year with ninth in Daytona, 23rd in Talladega, and 17th in the regular season finale in Daytona. But he won at Talladega last year and finished fourth in this event last year. He could pick up where he left off last week and have a good shot at victory.

Chase Briscoe (+2800) has one of the best career average finishes in Talladega, including fourth in the first race there this season. He also took pole position for the regular season finale in Daytona. A Briscoe win would be surprising but a lot less so at Talladega.

Alex Bowman’s (+2800) been one of the best non-playoff drivers at superspeedways this season. His pole position in the season opener in Daytona led to a fifth-place finish and he managed sixth there in the regular season finale. At the first Talladega race this year, he finished 13th. He’s been solid in the last three playoff wins with 10th-, 13th-, and 12th-place finishes.

Picks for the YellaWood 500

With such a wide-open race, it’s not a surprise to see the Cup Series YellaWood 500 odds so close among the leaders. Most all of them will have a chance to draft or work their way up to the front during the race.

Of the favorites, Buescher looks like the best bet given his form in 2023. For a bigger payout, look to Elliott or Chastain.

For NASCAR betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

Can’t get enough? Here’s more!

• 2023 Andy’s Frozen Custard 300: Nemechek favored in round 2 of Xfinity playoffs
• 2023 Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400: Larson vs Hamlin for top odds in Texas
• Xfinity Series Food City 300: Allgaier lead odds in playoff opener
• Resurgent Larson leads Cup Series Bass Pro Shops Night Race odds
• Nemechek Leads as Favorite in Xfinity Series Kansas Lottery 300 Finale