The NASCAR Xfinity Series heads to one of the fastest tracks in all of racing down in Talladega. Because it’s one of the few superspeedways where anything can happen, and the odds board will likely reflect that. With history on the line Saturday night, be sure to consult our analysis on the Sparks 300 Entry List.
Gragson Goes for History
Picking a winner when looking at NASCAR Xfinity Series odds is tough. Depending on one’s thought process, Noah Gragson has made that task either incredibly easier or equally harder over the past month. At Texas in the previous race, Gragson tied the record for the most consecutive wins with four, a record that stems back to Sam Ard back in 1983, according to Jayski.com.
Picking outrights when looking to bet on Xfinity Series odds is tough enough, but is it smart gambling to back Gragson in this spot?
After about his second win in a row, many gamblers might’ve laid off betting Gragson in that situation. Picking outrights when looking to bet on Xfinity Series odds is tough enough, but is it smart gambling to back Gragson in this spot?
He’s likely to be the favorite in almost every race through the rest of the season, including this week at +700. Bettors will now have a tough decision to make. Do you avoid betting on NASCAR race with the favorite and best driver in the field because of the streak? There will likely be plenty of recreational bettors that back Gragson just for the thrill of the day.
Updated Playoff Standings
With his fourth-straight win, Gragson has already punched his ticket to the next round of the playoffs and has quite the lead over A.J. Allmendinger and Ty Gibbs.
Allmendinger has jumped Gibbs for second in the playoff standings and it’s likely the two will be neck-and-neck the rest of the way, as the two drivers are separated by just one point.
Austin Hill has made quite the jump, currently in fourth with 2,064 points. Josh Berry sits close behind with 2,058 points in fifth and his teammate Justin Allgaier sits sixth with 2,054 points. While these drivers are all likely safe for the next round of the playoffs, it will likely be a battle between these three to see who survives the next cutoff.
Sam Mayer and Ryan Sieg are the two drivers who could see their playoff lives flip in an instant. They both sit tied with 2,035 points, just one point ahead of Riley Herbst. Herbst will be looking for any opportunity to improve his standing, as he’s currently on the outside looking in.
Who are the Favorites?
Due to the unpredictability of superspeedways, four drivers are tied for the favorite at +800 on the Sparks 300 entry list. That list includes Gragson, Allmendinger, Hill, Gibbs and Trevor Bayne.
All eyes will be on Gragson to make history Saturday by winning a fifth-straight race. While the feat is already incredibly unlikely, add on the fact he’ll have to also avoid “the big one”, there’s plenty of things working against him. One thing he does have going for him, however, is the fact that he won at Talladega earlier this season.
Allmendinger has impressed many people over this past few seasons. Once a road-course specialist, Allmendinger has proved that he’s much more versatile.
Allmendinger has impressed many people over this past few seasons. Once a road-course specialist, Allmendinger has proved that he’s much more versatile. In his last seven starts at superspeedways, Allmendinger has finished in the top five six times with five finishes in the three, five times.
Hill’s finished at Talladega have been less than stellar; finishing no better than 27th in two Xfinity Series starts. He did manage to win the first race of the year at Daytona and finished 14th when the series returned to Daytona in August. Oddsmakers believe Hill’s success on one superspeedway translates to the other.
At one point in the season, it looked like it could’ve been Gibbs that ran away with the whole thing. He was the leader in wins before Gragson went on this historic run. Gibbs was running well earlier this season at Talladega. He finished Stage 1 in second and Stage 2 in fifth before an accident ruined his day, causing him to finish 35th.
It’s tough to forget Trevor Bayne winning the 2011 Daytona 500. That’s likely a large piece of why Bayne is ranked this high, especially when he’s not a week-to-week driver. His best finish at Talladega came back in 2017 when he was still a driver in the Cup Series. He finished third in that one. Anyone looking for a blast from the past should be open to a Bayne ticket.
Where’s the Value?
The number one question coming into the weekend is whether or not there’s value on Gragson on the Sparks 300 entry list. No driver has ever won five-straight races, so that should tell you where Gragson is at. Trying to extend the streak at a superspeedway will be quite intriguing. If you’re after a fun time, take the ticket on Gragson.
Allmendinger is available at the same odds, but there’s plenty of value still on the bone to take him. Instead of looking at the outright odds, considering he’s never won at a superspeedway, consider other avenues. For example, we highlighted the fact that he’s finished in the top five in six of his last seven and top three in five of his last seven superspeedway starts. He’s currently +230 to finish in the top three and +110 to finish in the top five.
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