NOCO 400 Odds: Cup Series Returns to Asphalt in Martinsville
Christopher Bell Picked Up First Win of 2023 in Bristol
NOCO 400 Odds Preview: The only dirt race of the season proved to be a good hunting ground for Christopher Bell. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver notched his fifth career NASCAR Cup Series win in Bristol. A caution period with less than a lap left cut short Tyler Reddick’s challenge for the win. Bell leaves Bristol as the Cup Series championship leader 13 points ahead of Ross Chastain.
This week, the Cup Series heads to The Paperclip of Martinsville Speedway. The mixture of asphalt straightaways and concrete turns provides a unique challenge for drivers.
Here’s a look at who’s leading the odds this week:
2023 Winners Lead the Top Odds for NOCO 400
Defending NOCO 400 winner William Byron (+600) leads the way with the best odds for victory on Sunday. Since Byron notched consecutive wins in Las Vegas and Phoenix, the Hendrick Motorsports driver hasn’t performed consistently. Just a fifth-place finish in a wild race in Austin is the only other top-10 result he’s had this season. Byron won this event last year from fifth and has six top-10 finishes in 10 Cup Series races in Martinsville.
Bell and Kyle Larson are next at +650. Bell’s only raced six times in the Cup Series at Martinsville and notched one win and another top-10 finish. He’s performed best in his career at short tracks like Martinsville. He’d be just the second driver to win consecutive races this season and punch his ticket to the playoffs.
Larson’s win in Richmond two weeks ago shot him back up to the sharp end of the NASCAR Cup Series standings. But he couldn’t convert his pole position to a solid finish after contact with Ryan Preece cut his race short. A 35th-place finish stung a bit less with the 20 points he earned from the race. Larson’s never won in Martinsville in 16 Cup Series races. He’s cracked the top five just three times. A win Sunday would both make up for the late crash last week and help his championship status.
Rounding out the top group is Denny Hamlin at +700. Hamlin’s had an okay 2023 season so far with two top-10 finishes in eight races. There’s also been controversy at Phoenix when he wrecked Chastain and lost 25 points and $50,000 to fines.
Martinsville is one of the best tracks in his Cup Series career. In 34 Cup Series races, Hamlin’s finished at least 10th 23 times. His five wins are the most of any active Cup Series driver but the last one came in 2015. He’s podiumed four times since then but hasn’t made it back to the top step.
He led 203 laps the last time the Cup Series ran at Martinsville in last year’s playoffs, the most of any driver. It’d be a big boost to his 2023 season to get a win this weekend and he has a history of success.
Recent Winner, Defending Champion Next Best
Martin Truex Jr. is +850 for the win this week. His three wins in Martinsville are second only to Hamlin among active drivers. But it’s been pretty boom-or-bust. In the last eight Cup Series races in Martinsville, he’s won three times, finished in the top 10 twice, and finished 20th or lower three times. Truex Jr.’s had a consistent 2023 season so far. He’s finished between seventh and 17th in all eight races. He could break through that area for the win this Sunday.
Defending Cup Series champion Joey Logano’s tied with Truex Jr. at +850. His title defense started strong but has fallen off lately with a 28th-place finish in Austin and a DNF last week in Bristol. Though he’s only won one Martinsville Cup Series race, it’s been a solid track for him. He’s made the top 10 in more than half of his 28 races there. Another win this weekend would punch his ticket to this year’s playoffs and move him one step closer to a consecutive championship.
Longer Shots to Consider for NOCO 400
Continuing Our NOCO 400 Odds Preview: Though he’s not that much of a long shot, Ryan Blaney sits at +1100 to win on Sunday in Martinsville. Blaney’s struggled recently and finished 21st, 26th, and 23rd in his last three races. Team Penske also hasn’t won at Martinsville since March 2019. But Martinsville is Blaney’s best track. He’s finished ninth on average in 14 races, much better than his career short-track average of 16th. If you’re looking for a first-time winner to back, Blaney’s arguably your best option.
Alex Bowman (+2000) is a recent NOCO 400 winner with odds for a great payout. Besides a win in 2021, he hasn’t raced very well in Martinsville with just three other top-10 finishes. But either a Joe Gibbs Racing or Hendrick Motorsports driver has won the last six races in Martinsville. Bowman drives for the latter and could be a good bet on the team pulling through and getting him his first win since Las Vegas last season.
By contrast, Brad Keselowski (+2200) is a consistent driver at Martinsville without a recent win. The latest of his two victories there came in 2019. Since then, he’s finished in the top five four times in seven NASCAR races. In his 26 career races in Martinsville, Keselowski’s made the top 10 an incredible 17 times, more than any other track. There are few tracks he shines brighter at than Martinsville and would be worth a long-shot bet with the potential for a nice payout.
Predictions for 2023 NOCO 400
Concluding Our NOCO 400 Odds Preview: Byron’s near the top thanks to recent success and a team that’s raced well in Martinsville (Hendrick Motorsports). Bell’s up there thanks to a win last week but winners have struggled in 2023. Aside from Byron’s consecutive wins, winners in 2023 haven’t cracked the top 10 in any following race.
Hamlin’s track record makes him the top choice among the favorites. For a better payout, look to Keselowski. He’s come very close in recent years and could break through this Sunday. Be sure to check out the latest NASCAR points standing right here, all season long.
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