Würth 400 Odds: Who’s poised for a win at the Monster Mile?
The Cup Series Championship remains close as the grid heads to Dover
The NASCAR Cup Series is fresh off a wild overtime finish to the GEICO 500 last week in Talladega. Two-time champion Kyle Busch won after a multi-car accident took out many of the lead cars on the final overtime lap. Bubba Wallace fought Busch for the lead during the waning laps, but Ryan Blaney tagged Wallace just after the white flag. Wallace hit the wall and took out multiple cars. That ended Wallace’s great race and secured Busch’s first win in Talladega since 2008.
The chaotic order at the finish means the Cup Series championship stays close as it has for most of 2023. Christopher Bell remains at the top thanks to his eighth-place finish but just 41 points separate the top five.
Ross Chastain (2nd, 12 points back) and Kevin Harvick (3rd, 20) are both looking for their first wins of 2023. Meanwhile, Kyle Larson (fourth, 36) and Busch (fifth, 41) have already secured spots in the Cup Series playoffs with two wins in 2023.
This week the series heads north to Dover International Speedway. Below, you’ll find an analysis of the Würth 400 odds. Here’s a breakdown of the NASCAR odds this week at The Monster Mile:
Hendrick Motorsports drivers lead the way
Larson’s late collision with Ryan Preece in Talladega was one of the big stories after Sunday’s race. Specifically, his passenger side door support beams broke when Preece hit him in the middle of turn one. If it was on the other side of the car, it could’ve seriously harmed the 2021 champion.
Luckily, he walked away unscathed and leads the odds for a win Sunday in Dover at +500. He’s won once in Dover in the 2019 Drydene 400 but has an excellent track record. Of the active Cup Series drivers with at least 10 races at Dover, Larson has the best career average finish mark of seventh.
In 14 races around The Monster Mile, he’s made the top 10 11 times. Hendrick Motorsports drivers have won the last two races in Dover. After that late contact the previous week, he’ll be looking to make it three wins on Sunday.
Teammate William Byron finished just ahead of Larson in Talladega. He picked up his fourth top-10 finish this season in a year of highs and lows. He’s projected for more of the former this weekend at +550. On average, Byron’s performed okay in Dover. Eight races have yielded a pair of top-five results. It’d be more surprising than a Larson or Elliott win, but he’ll likely be in contention.
Elliott is the last of the top trio at +650 among the Würth 400 odds. He won this race last year after a rain delay pushed the finish to a Monday. Of the active Cup Series drivers, only Larson has a better track record on average than Elliott at Dover. Twelve races have yielded nine top-five results. He’s just a few weeks after returning from his leg injury in March. A win on Sunday would push him even further up the championship order after his recovery.
Hamlin, Bell in the next group
Denny Hamlin is the next driver behind the Hendrick trio at +900. Though Dover’s not his best track, Hamlin’s been a steady operator. He’s notched one win and six top-five finishes there in 32 races. And he’s the last non-Hendrick driver to win the event with his victory in the first race of the 2020 Dover twin-race weekend. Sunday could be his first win of the season.
Championship leader Bell is at +900 as well. Despite last weekend’s chaos, he remained one of the steadiest drivers in the Cup Series this season. His eighth-place finish made it seven top-eight finishes in the 10 races this season. He doesn’t have the track record of Larson or Elliott, but there is an opportunity for improvement, with only four races in Dover in his career.
Longer shots worth a bet in the Würth 400
If you look beyond that top five, there are multiple drivers to consider for the win on Sunday. Harvick is off to a much better start in 2023 than last season but remains winless. He’s +1100 on the Würth 400 odds board for a win to break that drought on Sunday.
He has 42 races under his belt in Dover — more than anyone except for Kurt Busch among active Cup Series drivers — and has made the top five in nearly a quarter of them. His average finish (13th) is one of the best in the field at the track, and he has three wins in Dover, the latest coming in 2018. He’s due for a win in 2023, which could be one of his best chances.
A similar story can be said for Martin Truex Jr. The longtime Cup Series driver is back on pace in 2023 compared to last year and sits seventh in the championship. He’s raced in Dover 32 times and made the top five nine times, including a trio of wins. His latest victory there came in 2019. At +1300, he’s a low-risk, high-payout bet if he wins.
Alex Bowman has longer odds than either of them at +1600. But he’s won this event before in 2021 and is another Hendrick Motorsports driver. The team’s done well at this track for a while, and he could be on the top step in Dover again for the second time in three years.
Brad Keselowski has even longer odds at +3500. He’s raced at Dover 24 times in his career and has one win and five top-five finishes in those contests. On average, he’s finished 13th, and only Larson, Elliott, Truex Jr., and Harvick can be better than average among drivers with at least 10 races of experience at Dover. He made it through the mayhem last week to fifth place. He may be able to continue that momentum again this week.
Predictions for the Würth 400
Elliott seems the best choice among the top odds for the Cup Series race this weekend. He’s been one of the most consistent drivers at Dover in the last few years, and this would be an excellent way for the 2020 champion to note his return to the Cup Series emphatically.
If you’re looking for a bigger payout, Harvick’s a great choice. He’s one of three active drivers with three wins in Dover (along with Truex Jr. and Kyle Busch) and has been near the top of the standings again after an off-year in 2022.
Be sure and stay closely tuned right here all season long for the latest NASCAR races, and the latest NASCAR odds.
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