Bucks vs Heat Odds: Banged Up Heat Will Give It To Milwaukee
We Had to Really Wait for the NBA Odds on This One
Bucks Favored by a Possession in In-Season Tournament
The NBA In-Season Tournament is finalizing the group stage, and we can thank that, on top of these phantom “injuries,” for the late Bucks vs Heat betting odds. Folks would have likely stayed up till the wee hours of Eastern Time to catch the early lines. And they are relatively conservative: Milwaukee is favored by 2.5 points or by one possession. Assuming all the “stars” get over their boo-boos, we might have a playoff-like game.
Bucks vs Heat 
Day/Time:
Location: Kaseya Center, Miami, FL
Records: Bucks (12-5)/Heat (10-7)
Streaming: TNT
Bucks Finally Worth a Buck?
The Bucks could finally be worth betting on thanks to a pretty good last two weeks: 5-2 against the spread (ATS). That’s a great improvement over its initial 1-9 ATS record. We can credit the Bucks’ improving defense as a reason this team is suddenly beating its NBA odds. Milwaukee ranked 11th in defensive rating (113.7) in these past seven games.
This is a stark improvement from being 26th (116.0) in its first 10 NBA games. The Bucks were 6-4 but a -2.2 in net rating. In the last seven games, Milwaukee’s net rating improved dramatically to +9.9, which is fourth overall.
It went 6-1, with its only defeat being a three-point loss to Boston, where it still covered its spread. And the only two times it failed to cover, its spread was a whopping 13 and 14 points. Still, barely beating Washington and Portland, who combine for an 8-26 record, is not flattering.
Another caveat with Milwaukee is forward Khris Middleton’s absence. Actually, even when he plays, he’s a short version of himself. Now with an Achilles injury, the former multiple All-Star is a detriment to the team. That leaves Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard, the Bucks’ two superstars, having to carry the load.
Center Brook Lopez has also had some big games. And the Bucks’ bench is putting up 34.6 points with a +1.7 plus/minus on average. These role NBA players will be needed, given the depth Miami has.
The Heat always play better than they look on paper. Fortunately, Milwaukee may just have to win to cover the Bucks vs Heat betting odds.
Heat Coach Spoelstra Ready To Trip Up the Bucks?
Regardless of what the Heat look like, they always have an edge behind the bench. Erik Spoelstra was voted as the best NBA coach by general managers early last NBA season. And for good reason. He’s led the Heat to two NBA Finals appearances in the last four years, beating the heavily favored Bucks and Celtics on both occasions.
“I think of the most important things that we all have to think is we all have to start with a blank sheet of paper and be open to how guys can be different,” Spoelstra told reporters last year.
Miami is a team built for the NBA playoffs. That’s why we frequently see a long injury list with this team. Whether it’s all made up or stars like Jimmy Butler (ankle) really can’t play, Spoelstra will find a way.
The Heat are getting things done on the NBA East standings, and there is now confirmation that big man Bam Adebayo (hip) and sharpshooter Duncan Robinson (thumb) should play in this crucial game. Sixth man Tyler Herro (ankle) remains sidelined, however.
Spoelstra is going against a rookie head coach in Adrian Griffin, who has to adjust to having Lillard on his NBA team. Milwaukee’s defense is not what it was, though it’s getting there. Miami is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games but has won six straight against Milwaukee.
Defenses tend to take a back seat to these games, as the total has gone over in their last eight meetings. Now, it’s set at 227 points, around where it was in their first meeting this season. With high stakes, bank on one of the better NBA games today.
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