Heat vs Knicks Odds Preview: New York Favored To Get Revenge on Miami
The Obvious Heat vs Knicks Prediction is For a Playoff Atmosphere
Home Team Favored in a Low-Scoring Game
New York is favored by 5.5 points in this NBA In-Season Tournament game. It faces Miami for the first time since the 2023 NBA Playoffs. The Knicks are 4-1 in their last five games hosting the Heat. But that one loss came when the Heat ended the Knicks’ season. Potentially hungrier, New York could be the correct Heat vs Knicks prediction > here in what should be a grueling game as the low total indicates.
Miami Heat vs New York Knicks 
(10-5) | (8-6)
Location: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
Day/Time: Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Stream: ESPN
Miami Heating Up Against Warm-Ups
The Heat have won nine of their last 10 games and still enter the Garden as 5.5-point underdogs. If you inspect a bit more closely, Miami has mainly beaten the also-rans of the NBA. Other than Atlanta and Cleveland, who are not too hot anyway, Miami has won against teams at .500 or worse.
The Knicks are a step up in competition. And while the Heat are 4-2 against the NBA spreads (ATS) in their last six games, they are just 1-4 in their last five trips to New York City. On top of that, Miami has a few key players on their NBA injury list. Star center Bam Adebayo has a hurt hip. Sixth man Tyler Herro is still sidelined.
“It’s not a lingering thing, he’s padded,” Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra said about Adebayo. “He just took a hard fall in the Chicago game in the same exact spot that he did earlier in the season when he had to miss a game. He was able to do some things in shootaround but not jump.”
A compromised Adebayo could be why the Heat vs Knick predictions side with the latter. He was a key component in Miami’s 4-2 series win against the Knicks. Adebayo averaged 18.7 points and 9.7 boards on 52.9% shooting. More notably, he helped neutralize Knicks star forward Julius Randle.
Adebayo and Herro make up for 45.7 points of the Heat’s 111.5 per game. They are 12th in offensive rating (114.7) and will need more out of players like Josh Richardson and Haywood Highsmith. Otherwise, the Heat may not even warm up against the Knicks.
Are the Knicks Ready To Make a Statement?
We can consider the Knicks’ 2022-23 season a success as they won a playoff series and gave Miami, the Eastern Conference champions, a good series. This reunion with Miami is a chance for the Knicks to get back at the Heat in a notable game that should have a playoff atmosphere.
In the Game 6 loss to Miami, the Knicks were beaten by the Heat in terms of hustle plays. Statistically, the Knicks were in it with Miami as the two squads seemed evenly matched. But it was Miami that came away with the victory.
If we can expect a playoff-type game, then we can add some physicality and deduct some scoring. That’s why the total is only at 212 points, which is already up from the opener of 209.5. The total has gone over in most of these teams’ past few games: four in Miami’s last six and five in New York’s last seven.
In Miami’s case, the total has hovered around the 210s. For the Knicks, they had a few offensive explosions. They scored 120+ in four of their last seven games. The only time the NBA scores did not go over was when they held Washington to 99 points.
But in this game, it may be harder for the Knicks to score 120+. Miami is allowing just 108.1 points per game (111.2 defensive rating). In what should be a slow-paced game, New York will have to stay focused for 48 minutes to win by 6+ points. In any case, fans will take a win on the Heat vs Knicks predictions.
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