Can Dallas Turn Around Its Defense Against The Miami Heat?
Back The Road Team With These Heat vs Mavericks Betting Odds
The Dallas Mavericks have dropped to 34-28 on the season after three consecutive losses. Now, they’ll look to get back on track with a home game against a much hotter Miami Heat squad.
The Heat have won four of their last five games. However, the previous two were against the Utah Jazz and Detroit Pistons at home. Most NBA teams would win those games.
The Heat are also still dealing with significant NBA injuries. Tyler Herro’s knee injury will likely sideline him for this game. Meanwhile, Kevin Love has a heel injury that keeps him out of action. Yet, the Heat are 35-26 and almost ten games above .500. That’s the Heat Culture doing the talking.
At this time, the Mavericks are still favorites despite their struggles over the last couple of weeks. Dallas is currently at -4.5 (-115), with the total at 231.
Let’s break down the Heat vs Mavericks betting preview below. We’ll also deliver our best bet for this inter-league matchup on TNT.
Heat vs Mavericks 
Day/Time:
Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
Streaming: TNT
Heat vs Mavericks Betting Trends
The Miami Heat might be nine games above .500. However, the Heat are just 30-30-1 against the spread and have watched the Under hit in 13 more games this season.
Ironically enough, the Heat have performed better on the road this season, going 18-13, compared to their home record of 17-13.
On the other hand, Dallas has gone 32-30 against the spread and has split Overs and Unders, hitting 31 Overs and 31 Unders this year.
The Mavericks are 18-15 at home, which isn’t too thrilling of a record for a team above. 500 with two of the best players in the NBA on the squad.
This will be the first of two meetings between the Heat and Mavericks. Dallas has won four of the last six matchups, but the Heat last added a 129-122 win in April 2023 as a 2.5-point underdog at home.
Josh Richardson’s Season Is Over
After missing eight consecutive games with a shoulder injury, Josh Richardson and the Heat announced that he will undergo season-ending surgery.
Richardson was a valuable player for the Heat this season. He averaged nearly ten points per game, 2.8 rebounds, and 2.4 assists per contest. He also shot 44.4% from the field and nailed nearly 35% from downtown in the 43 games he played this year.
This was his second stint with the Heat since being drafted in 2015. He’s scored nearly 12 points per game in his career and has played in 30 NBA playoff games with nine starts.
He expects to be ready for camp this fall after a few months of recovery from surgery.
Defense, Anyone?
The Dallas Mavericks have dropped four of their last five games due to poor defense. Over the last two weeks, they have ranked dead last in defense, allowing 126.1 points per 100 possessions.
To put that into perspective, the Wizards have allowed nearly 122 points per 100 possessions this season. That’s the worst rate in the NBA throughout the season.
It just looks like the Mavericks are unprepared on that end of the floor. They’re also fouling at a higher rate and aren’t familiar with their assignments.
The Mavericks have allowed at least 120 points in each of their last five games. In the lone win, Dallas needed 136 points to escape a Raptors team that still scored 125 points on them.
Until the Mavericks correct the defense, Dallas isn’t going anywhere.
The Mavericks Don’t Have The Answers
We stand corrected. In our Pacers-Mavericks article, we had the Mavericks covering the 4.5-point spread. We gained CLV on the play, but as we all know, the game still has to play out.
The Mavericks dominated for the second consecutive time against the Pacers, allowing 141.2 points per 100 possessions. That included an effective field goal percentage of 63.4% and a turnover percentage of just 8.2%.
The defense has been miserable, but at least the offense has done its job.
The Mavericks are seeing more success on the offensive glass and have still scored at least 122 points per 100 possessions in three of their last five games.
Dallas has averaged 119.3 points per 100 possessions this season and has still added a 57.1% effective field goal percentage. But while the Mavericks have done better on the offensive glass lately, they’ll struggle against a Heat defense that has allowed only 25.7% of offensive rebounds. Miami is also very good at keeping teams away from the foul line.
The Heat are much better defensively all around. But the more interesting nugget is the offense. Miami has limited turnovers to below 10% in back-to-back NBA games while shooting an effective field goal percentage of at least 57.6%. They did this against the Jazz and Pistons, who are both horrible defenses.
The Mavericks are ultimately just as bad right now.
This season, Dallas still ranks 20th in points per 100 possessions and 20th in effective field goal percentage on defense. The Mavericks are also not great on the defensive glass and could give the Heat more opportunities for second chances. But beyond that, the Heat are a top-five team at getting to the foul line.
We’re done trusting the Mavericks. The Heat are higher in our NBA power rankings despite the NBA Finals odds having the Mavericks ahead of the Heat.
Let’s not forget how good the Heat have been during the playoffs. That team made the NBA Finals last year, while the Mavericks didn’t even make the NBA Play-In Tournament. Although Luka Doncic leads all NBA top scorers in points, he surely doesn’t lead in defense. You can find many blow-by’s on YouTube of Doncic giving little effort defensively.
Therefore, after reviewing the Heat vs Mavericks betting trends, we’re backing the Heat at +4.5 (-105).
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