Celtics-Mavericks Betting Preview: Rest vs Rust? NBA Odds Favor Boston
Dallas Hosts Boston Following a Five-Day Layoff
Boston-Dallas Tightly Lined Despite “Rest” Disparity
In this Celtics-Mavericks betting preview, “rest” is the theme. The Dallas Mavericks return to action after a five-day layoff. Recent trends suggest Dallas could be profitable as a 3.5-point underdog against visiting Boston, which has no rest coming from Houston. Dallas is 6-3-0 against the spread (ATS) when having two or more days of rest. Meanwhile, Boston is just 4-4-0 ATS when playing with a rest disadvantage.
Celtics vs Mavericks 
Day/Time:
Records: Celtics (33-10)/Mavericks (24-18)
Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
Streaming: Watch Live Sports
Rested Mavericks Need To Outscore Celtics
As their record against the NBA point spread suggests, Dallas tends to be prolific when coming from an extended break. The Mavericks are 6-3 straight-up and have scored in the 120s in six of these games. When Dallas hits the 120-point mark, the team is 20-2. Outscoring Boston can prove difficult though the total of 239 points indicates a firefight.
The Luka Doncic-Kyrie Irving partnership has been paying dividends for Dallas. The duo are combining to score nearly 60 points (58.9) and over 14 assists.
“He’s a winner. I’m a winner,” said Irving about his running mate. “He’s a big gamer. I’m a big gamer. We like going against the best. That’s where I feel like we connect.”
However, Dallas also failed to hit the 100-point mark in two of their “well-rested” games. Doncic did not play against Memphis. And while both played well against the Clippers, the rest of the team combined to score just 32 points on 11-of-42 shooting. As great as Doncic and Irving are, Boston can equalize by neutralizing everyone else.
The Celtics have a top-10 defense as a road team, allowing only 113.3 points per visit. It limits hosts to under 46% shooting, which is the fourth-lowest mark among road teams. They are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games against Dallas. However, Dallas is 4-2 in these NBA teams’ last six matchups, straight-up.
On top of that, Boston is also only 7-11-2 ATS as a road favorite. This is just a 38.9% cover rate. But at only 3.5 points, the Celtics need to win by just two possessions. Only eight of their 43 games were decided by three points or fewer.
No ‘D’ in Dallas? Boston Gets the Edge
Trading a third of the roster to pair Irving and Doncic led to one obvious issue: defense. While the Mavericks improved in this area, they still rank 18th in defensive rating (116.9). That’s below average and a potential downfall against Boston, which is a top-three offense overall (120.1 offensive rating).
Dallas has scored 120+ points 22 times this NBA season. But it has also given up 120+ points 20 times and is 9-11 when this happens. It’s partly a reason why Dallas is not higher on the NBA standings and why it tends to get high totals, such as the 239 points here.
Still, the totals are 6-7 toward the ‘under’ when Dallas has an over/under of 239 points or more. We’d likely expect a game where both Dallas and Boston score 120+ each to push this one to go over the totals.
Boston has scored 120+ points in eight of its 22 road NBA games and it has allowed that many only six times. Both Boston and its opponent hit the 120+ mark just three times: at the Pacers, Warriors, and Thunder. The Warriors game went to overtime.
As such, betting against this NBA line may be the way to go here even if the totals went over in four of Boston’s seven games on the second night of a back-to-back. A potentially weary Celtics, who may miss All-Star guard Jrue Holiday, could be leakier on defense.
As such, this Celtics-Mavericks betting preview should tout the ‘over’. A scoring-fest between star-studded teams would be both fun and profitable to bet on.
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