Heat Without Jimmy Butler as Mighty Celtics Await in First Round
Heat vs Celtics Preview: Boston -3000 Favorites to Win Series
Miami is back in the NBA playoffs, looking to pull off another massive upset as the No. 8 seed in the East. The deck is certainly stacked against the Heat, who will be without Jimmy Butler for their first-round series against the top-seeded Boston Celtics. Game 1 is slated for Sunday (1 p.m. ET, ABC) at TD Garden in Boston.
Boston is a whopping 13-point favorite and -1200 on the moneyline for Game 1, with Miami priced +750 to win outright. Meanwhile, the projected total is 208.5. The Celtics are also -3000 favorites to win the four-game series, compared to +1300 for Miami.
What can bettors expect? Read on as we break down both teams and assess the betting odds in our Heat vs Celtics preview.
Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics 
Day/Time:
Location: TD Garden, Boston, MA
Heat vs Celtics Betting Trends
The Miami Heat are 42-40-2 against the spread, including 7-3 over their last 10 games. Miami’s games have consistently trended toward the Under, as the Heat are 36-48 against the Over/Under for a cover rate of just 42.9%. Across the NBA, only the Nuggets have gone Under the total less often (42.7%).
Meanwhile, the Boston Celtics are 41-36-5 ATS, but just 3-7 over their last 10 games. As for the Over/Under, Boston is 43-39.
That’s important to remember when assessing the odds in our Heat vs Celtics preview.
Miami ‘Heating’ Up Sans Butler
Miami (46-36) may have taken a circuitous route, but it finds itself back in the playoffs after thumping the Bulls 112-91 in the play-in tournament. A 2-point favorite, Miami jumped to a 17-point lead after the first quarter and led by as many as 29 to lock up the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference.
The Heat were also the No. 8 seed last season and stunningly made it to the NBA Finals, knocking off the heavily favored Celtics along the way. This time around, however, Miami won’t have Jimmy Butler.
The six-time All-Star — nicknamed “Playoff Jimmy” for his knack for raising his performance during the postseason — is out multiple weeks with an MCL sprain per NBA injuries. Butler suffered the injury in Wednesday’s 105-104 play-in loss to Philadelphia.
With Butler sidelined, rookie Jaime Jaquez Jr. was elevated to the starting lineup and turned in a strong performance with 21 points, six rebounds and six assists.
Without him, the Heat face long odds just to beat Boston, let alone get back to the NBA Finals. They are +3000 to win the East and +7500 to win the NBA title. On the eve of the postseason, only three teams had longer title odds: Pacers (+10000), Pelicans (+12000) and Magic (+20000).
Miami is strong defensively, ranking third in the league in opponents’ scoring (108.4 points allowed/game) and 10th in defensive field-goal percentage (46.7). As such, the Heat have gone Under the total in 57.1% of their games, the second highest rate in the NBA. Keep that in mind when analyzing the odds in our Heat vs Celtics preview.
Butler’s injury means there’s more pressure on the likes of Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo to carry Miami from an offensive standpoint. Both are skilled scorers, but Butler leaves a giant void.
Title or Bust in Beantown
Boston was the NBA’s most consistently dominant team this season, winning a league-high 64 games to lock up the top seed in the East. The Celtics were especially potent at home, where they went 37-4 after a 20-0 start.
Unsurprisingly, the Celtics enter the playoffs with title-or-bust expectations. They are overwhelming -200 favorites to win the East — Philadelphia owns the second-shortest odds at +700 — and +145 to win the NBA Finals, which they last did in 2007-08.
The Celtics were the only team to place in the top five in both scoring offense (120.6 points/game, 2nd) and scoring defense (109.2 points allowed/game, 5th) and led the NBA with a plus/-11.3 scoring differential. As such, the Celtics covered in 53.3% of the time, though they are just 3-8 ATS over their last 11 games.
Jayson Tatum is having another outstanding season, averaging 26.9 points on 47.1% shooting to go with 8.1 rebounds. The addition of Kristaps Porzingis, who averaged 20.1 points, 7.2 rebounds and 1.9 blocks in his first year as a Celtic, has alleviated some of the pressure on both Tatum and Jaylen Brown.
All five starters can score in double figures, and the bench is potent as well thanks to Payton Pritchard and Al Horford.
Boston showed some vulnerabilities down the stretch, dropping games to both Milwaukee and New York. However, the Celtics’ potential is obvious. Holding homecourt advantage through at least the East finals, the Celtics are positioned to make a deep run.
Anything short of a Finals appearance won’t cut it, and even that may not be enough given what they’ve accomplished.
Handicapping the Game
Boston swept Miami during the regular season, beating the Heat three times by an average of 15 points. Tatum was Boston’s top scorer in the last two matchups, including a 110-106 victory on Feb. 11 in which he had 26 points, 10 rebounds and nine assists.
This is the teams’ fourth postseason meeting since 2020. While Miami beat Boston in both the 2020 and 2023 East finals, the Celtics are positioned to return the favor this season.
The Celtics clinched a playoff berth on March 14 and locked up the East’s No. 1 seed 11 days later, allowing Joe Mazzulla to set up his rotation down the stretch. As such, the Celtics are healthy and well-rested, something that can’t be said about Erik Spoelstra’s Heat.
Without Butler, it’s hard to see Miami having much of a chance against the NBA leaders. In fact, oddsmakers see a four-game sweep (+125) as the likeliest outcome.
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