Liberty vs Aces Betting Preview: New York Has Las Vegas on the Ropes

Las Vegas Still Favored Despite Past Two Results

The New York Liberty sent a message by blowing out the Las Vegas Aces to win the Commissioner’s Championship. New York lit up Las Vegas for the second straight game and snapped Las Vegas’s 15-game unbeaten streak at home. The best part is that the rematch happens tonight, Thursday. As such, the Liberty vs Aces betting preview wonders why Vegas is still favored both in this game and in the outright odds.

Should Liberty be New WNBA Championship Favorites?

It is a fair question as New York has now blown Las Vegas out twice. Both games also looked similar. The Liberty torched Las Vegas with a 3-point barrage both times while holding superstar A’ja Wilson to just nine points. This time around, it was a defensive struggle on both ends.

Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu shot a combined 8-of-30 from the field. The latter previously went 12-of-19 with six 3-pointers for 31 points. This time, she still managed to hit critical 3s in the second-half.

The Liberty held Las Vegas to just 29 second-half points. And Las Vegas had no answer for New York’s 3-pointers as Marine Johannes hit 5 3s off the bench. The Aces hit that many but with 26 attempts. This is the key WNBA stat that could continue to push New York over Las Vegas.

“This is why we all came here,” said forward Breanna Stewart who signed with the Liberty this offseason. “We came to win games, to contend for WNBA championships. One of our goals was to win the Commissioner’s Cup, and we did that.”

Most WNBA predictions still favor Las Vegas. But the Liberty have closed the gap. The outright odds now have the Liberty at +200 to win the WNBA title, down from +300 just before the game. Las Vegas’s line lengthened from -400 to -250.

The win also made it eight straight wins for New York and five straight against the spread (ATS). More notably, six of its last seven games went under the total thanks to its defense. New York held all but one of its opponents under 80 points in this span.

This may be the Liberty vs Aces betting preview, but New York is making a strong case that it should be the title favorite.

Las Vegas Getting Exposed?

Don’t get it twisted. Las Vegas is still a powerhouse team and worthy of being atop the WNBA standings in 2023. This loss, as bad as it looked, was just its fourth for the season. But Wilson’s second straight no-show against New York is concerning. And it’s worse when the team is unable to close out New York’s shooters.

“Bottom line is our defense has had some slippage, probably in the last 10 games,” Aces head coach Becky Hammon said. “New York’s defense has gotten better. Before that, that was a separation factor for us. I ask a lot of our big four, night in and night out. And when they’re not flowing or hitting [shots], it gets real tough.”

The Liberty hit 15-of-33 (45.5%) from downtown and in their previous meeting, they hit 17-of-38 (44.7%). New York is undefeated when it shoots this well from deep (8-0). And the Aces, prior to the game, averaged the WNBA’s best defensive rating at 96.7 It held opponents to just 34% from deep, which ranked fifth.

This rematch will tell if Las Vegas has what it takes to beat New York. The team is being exposed a bit in Candace Parker’s absence. Expect the WNBA betting odds to quickly shift if the results are the same as Tuesday night. Then the next Liberty vs Aces betting preview will likely have the former as the favorites.

For WNBA betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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