Liberty vs Mystics Betting Odds: New York’s WNBA Championship Hopes Rest on Stewart

Are the New York Liberty ripe for an upset? The No. 2 seed New York Liberty will open the WNBA playoffs against the seventh-seeded Washington Mystics. While the teams split four meetings in the regular season, New York heads into the postseason with legitimate championship aspirations.

The odds certainly reflect that, as the Liberty is a 9.5-point favorite (-110) for Friday’s Game 1. They’re also -510 to win outright, while Washington is priced at +390. The projected total is 162.5 (-112 Over, -108 Under).

Game 2 of the best-of-three series is scheduled for Sept. 19, also in New York, while a deciding Game 3 would be Sept. 22 in Washington, D.C. New York is a heavy -600 favorite to win the series, with Washington coming in at +420. Are those odds fair? Read on as we break down both teams in our Liberty vs Mystics betting odds preview.

Odds Outlook

The New York Liberty is just 19-21 against the spread, including 9-10 ATS at home and 17-19 when favored. The Washington Mystics haven’t fared much better in that regard, going 18-21-1 ATS, including 7-7-1 as an underdog. Their 7-13 record ATS on the road is second-worst in the WNBA behind the Phoenix Mercury (5-15). That’s important to remember when assessing the Liberty vs Mystics betting odds.

It’s Now or Never for Liberty

The New York Liberty came into this season with massive expectations. So far, they’ve lived up to the billing. New York rolled to a 32-8 record, earning the No. 2 overall seed in the WNBA playoffs. As such, they’re a popular title pick, with +150 odds to take home a championship. Only the Las Vegas Aces, the best WNBA team, will enter the postseason with better odds (-150).

Can New York finish the job? Despite being one of the WNBA’s original franchises, New York has never won a title. But the Liberty seems equipped to change that. It’s been that way for months, and it’s only becoming clearer.

Fittingly, Breanna Stewart, New York’s marquee offseason acquisition, has been a catalyst in the Liberty’s turnaround. Stewart ranks second in the WNBA in scoring (23.0), third in rebounding (9.3), and tied for third in blocks (1.6). She’s been in the mix for MVP all season, going neck-to-neck with Las Vegas’ A’ja Wilson. Currently, Stewart, who won her first MVP in 2018, is a close second with +110 odds.

As great as she is, Stewart, 29, may need help to lift New York over the top. That’s where the likes of Sabrina Ionescu, Jonquel Jones, and Courtney Vandersloot come in. The Liberty is more than just Stewart. Much, much more. They’re the deepest, most talented team outside of the defending champions, whom they beat three times.

The Liberty are second in the league in scoring, averaging 89.2 points per game. They’ve also allowed the fourth-fewest points on average (80.6). Add it up, and the Liberty has a point differential of plus-8.6. Keep that in mind when evaluating the Liberty vs Mystics betting odds.

Health a Concern for Mystics

The Washington Mystics, slowed most of the season by injuries, are right where they expected to be: in the playoffs. Washington limped its way to a 19-21 record, earning the No. 7 seed. Getting New York out of the gate isn’t ideal, but the Mystics are skilled enough to beat anybody. That is, of course, if they’re healthy.

Elena Delle Donne, a two-time MVP and seven-time All-Star, has been in and out of the lineup most of the season. Limited to 23 games (15 starts), Delle Donne averaged 16.7 points and 5.4 rebounds while shooting 48.5% from the field. Although Delle Donne, who turned 34 last week, may no longer be capable of carrying a team, she’s still a legitimate difference-maker.

The question is, does Delle Donne have the supporting cast she needs? Ariel Atkins, who averaged 11.5 points and 1.2 steals, dealt with injuries as well. So, too, did center Shakira Austin, who missed Sunday’s regular-season finale against the Liberty (hip). Given the team’s current construction, veteran guards Brittney Sykes and Natasha Cloud will need to produce for Washington to have any shot of exceeding expectations and going on a surprise run.

Washington currently owns the fifth-best WNBA title odds at +4500, a significant drop from the preseason (+1400). Overcoming that will be challenging.

Handicapping the Game

New York has been near the top of the WNBA standings for the better part of three months. It’s no wonder why. Stewart is one of the few players in the league capable of taking a game over any given night. She had four 40-point games and scored 30 or more seven times. Washington did well to keep her in check — Stewart averaged a modest 15.7 points on 32.7% shooting in four regular-season meetings — but can you seriously bet against her?

Outside of Las Vegas, there isn’t a better team in the WNBA. New York will put that on display in the opening round.

For WNBA predictions, betting odds, analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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