NBA Odds Favor Visiting Thunder Against Warriors
No Steph Curry and no Draymond Green for Golden State this Thursday night. That means the fully loaded Oklahoma City Thunder, the visitors, are -3 favorites. The absence of Golden State’s star players has led to a Thunder vs Warriors analysis that gives OKC the edge. It will be up to the Warriors’ role NBA players to step up against the Thunder, who have been solid on the betting lines.
Location: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA
Records: Thunder (7-4)/Warriors (6-6)
Can We Trust the Thunder as Road Favorites?
The Thunder opened the 2023-24 NBA season as one of the trendy teams. And so far, so good, with a 7-4 record on both the NBA moneyline and against the spread (ATS). But as a road favorite, the Thunder are 0-1 on both counts. That loss came in Sacramento against a DeAaron Fox-less Kings, where OKC was a 1.5-point fave.
Oklahoma City is also just 2-7-0 ATS as a visiting favorite since the start of last season. But overall, the Thunder are 25-19-3 ATS as a visitor. And the spread is only at 2.5 points, so it’s almost like winning outright. All seven of their wins came by three points or more. Six were by more than one possession.
Facing the Curry-less and Green-less Warriors is another matchup. Curry has been Golden State’s primary source of offense. And this NBA team will miss Green’s playmaking on both ends of the floor. No other Warrior scored a 20+ point game until after Curry got hurt.
That’s one of the Thunder’s biggest edges here: depth. They have five players scoring in double figures on average, with four shooting at a 49% accuracy or better. The Thunder’s bench is seventh in plus/minus (+1.2). The team’s shooting is ranked third overall at 49.2%.
Still, we can’t have an objective Thunder vs Warriors analysis by ignoring its poor record in Warriors territory: six straight losses ATS. But given how improved this team is from the past two seasons, this may be a moot stat.
Who Steps up For Golden State?
Without Curry and Green, it will fall on everyone in Golden State to chip in. The two-time MVP averaged 30.7 points while shooting 48.8% from the field and 44.6% from deep. But his next best teammates?
Klay Thompson, Chris Paul, and Andrew Wiggins combine to average 33.8 points on 40.2% shooting and an abysmal 26.9% from 3-point range. Jonathan Kuminga is the leading scorer off the bench with 11.5 points but shooting just 39.6%.
As for Green, he’s second on the team in a lot of categories, like assists per NBA game (5.7), box plus/minus (5.2), and win shares per 48 minutes. For all his antics, Green remains an invaluable piece to the Warriors’ puzzle.
Losing both significantly lowers the Warriors’ abilities, hence why they’re underdog NBA picks today.
Brandin Podziemski stepped up for Golden State against Minnesota. He scored 23 points off the bench on 50% shooting, and head coach Steve Kerr.
“He is going to play,” Kerr said following the game against the Timberwolves. “He was incredible tonight. He has been great in practice. He is going to play every night. He has earned that.”
But other than Podziemski, Golden State needs for more out of the rest of the crew. Paul has a knack for elevating the play of his teammates. And GS is a perfect 6-0 ATS as a home underdog since 2022. Don’t be so quick to fade the team in this Thunder vs Warriors analysis.