March Madness Round 1: Nevada vs Dayton NCAAB Odds & Score
Great Mid-Major Battle Out West
Nevada vs Dayton Final Score
For the first time in Anthony Grant’s tenure, the Dayton Flyers are dancing. They’re a No. 7 seed in the West Region and will take on Steve Alford’s Nevada Wolf Pack on Thursday afternoon in an intriguing battle of really good mid-major teams. This is the second-straight NCAA Tournament appearance for Nevada, which lost in the First Four to Arizona State a year ago. The Nevada vs Dayton NCAAB odds have Nevada as a very slight favorite but this one is basically a toss-up.
Nevada was riding high to end the regular season, capping off a great campaign with seven straight wins and second-place in the Mountain West Conference. But the Wolf Pack lost their first game of the conference tournament to a worse Colorado State team. That was just one game, but it certainly wasn’t how Alford—who has made the Big Dance with five different teams—wanted his team to head to the NCAA Tournament. Now, they’re at the mercy of the March Madness game schedule.
Dayton also had a quick exit from the Atlantic 10 tournament as the Flyers lost to eventual champion Duquesne. Again, not the most concerning defeat but for Dayton, it continued a trend of struggles away from the Flyers’ home arena. They went a perfect 15-0 at home this season but were 6-5 in road games and 3-2 in neutral-site games. That is definitely worth noting for Dayton, which is -115 on the moneyline.
Nevada Wolf Pack vs Dayton Flyers 
Records: Wolf Pack (26-7)/Flyers (24-7)
Location: Delta Center; Salt Lake City, Utah
Day/Time:
Streaming: CBS
Home Game For Nevada?
While Salt Lake City isn’t exactly next to Reno, Nevada, it’s much closer to the Biggest Little City In The World than it is to Dayton. So, expect the Wolf Pack to have fan representation at Thursday’s game than the Flyers will. And, as noted above, Dayton’s issues on the road and neutral sites are very apparent and could play an essential role in this game. That could be a reason why Nevada has the edge on the Nevada vs Dayton NCAAB odds.
Dayton must figure out how to translate its unbeatable play at home to unfamiliar courts, especially on the sport’s biggest stage. The pressure’s on the Flyers and Anthony Grant because Dayton hasn’t done anything in the postseason since Archie Miller was the head coach.
Dayton Wants To Control Pace
When you look at Dayton’s stats, it feels like there much be some kind of mistake. If you’re making college basketball predictions, you need to look beyond the surface, however. The Flyers score under 75 points a game, have taken the 10th-fewest field goal attempts per game and aren’t an especially good free throw shooting team.
What they are good at is three-point shooting and playing games at a glacial pace. Dayton converts on its three at an over 40% clip — third-best in the country — and, per KenPom, is toward the bottom of Division 1 in terms of adjusted tempo.
The short story is that the Flyers are an incredibly efficient three-point shooting team that tries to limit how many possessions each team is able to have. Dayton is also good at limiting its turnovers — just over 10 per game — and doesn’t commit fouls (12th-fewest in the country).
Grant’s team wants the game to be played in the halfcourt at both ends where its productive offense can rely on its perimeter shooting and where its defense won’t allow teams to live at the charity stripe. It’s a smart strategy that has worked for the Flyers so far. Unsurprisingly, Dayton’s top four scorers are at 37.5% or better from three.
Nevada Has To Get To Line
Well, if one of Dayton’s best team qualities is not fouling, then we have an old-fashioned strength vs. strength here. Nevada lives at the free throw line, both attempting and making the ninth-most free throws in Division 1. The Wolf Pack’s top scorers — Jarod Lucas and Kenan Blackshear — average over 11 free throws in a contest just between the two. It’s a huge part of their offense and contributes to the current Nevada vs Dayton NCAAB odds.
However, if Dayton is able to stay out of foul trouble and not give Nevada chances at the line, then it might be difficult for the Wolf Pack to generate offense. They were 40th in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency which isn’t bad but outside of Lucas (a 40 percent three-point shooter), Blackshear (a combo guard who isn’t much of a shooter), and Nick Davidson (a paint-focused forward), Nevada doesn’t have any alternative shot creators.
If Dayton sticks to its gameplan and doesn’t let Lucas get hot from the perimeter, then the Flyers should be able to hold the Nevada offense down.
The NCAA men’s basketball schedule on Thursday is understandably jam-packed but this is a game you should make a point of watching if you weren’t already. Two relatively under-the-radar teams from non-power conferences with veteran head coaches and different styles of play, not to mention an — on-paper, at least — tight matchup. Should be a great one in Salt Lake City that, in the end, Nevada is the team to back. The over/under is a relatively low 137 points, largely due to Dayton’s style and slow pace. The under is a good pick.
For NCAAB betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
