March Madness Round 1: New Mexico vs Clemson Lines Analysis & Score
Lobos Are Favored As No. 11 Seed: Is College Hoops Different Back East?
New Mexico vs Clemson Final Score
New Mexico vs Clemson Preview
Despite running the table to win a stacked Mountain West Conference Tournament and earn an automatic bid to the Big Dance, the New Mexico Lobos are only a No. 11 seed as they get ready to take on the ACC’s Clemson Tigers on Friday afternoon in Memphis. The New Mexico vs Clemson lines actually have the Lobos favored even with the Tigers being a couple of seed lines above Richard Pitino’s team. This shows that Vegas really disagrees with how the committee seeded New Mexico.
This is the first NCAA berth for Pitino with New Mexico and New Mexico’s first trip back to the tournament in 10 years. Clemson last made the tournament in 2021 but hasn’t won a tourney game since 2018, when Brad Brownell’s squad made it to the Sweet 16. The NCAA Tournament projections clearly aren’t expecting much from Clemson this time around after the Tigers lost three of their last four games, all against non-tournament teams.
New Mexico is currently favored by 2.5 points and is a -135 moneyline favorite. The over/under is 152 points which, based on how much the Lobos and Tigers averaged during the season, looks to be a little low. Let’s dig into the matchup a little bit deeper to see which side is the right one to back here as these teams battle for a chance to play the winner of Baylor/Colgate in the second round.
New Mexico Lobos vs Clemson Tigers 
Records: Lobos (26-9)/Tigers (21-11)
Location: FedEx Forum; Memphis, Tennessee
Day/Time:
Streaming: truTV
Lobos Want to Speed it Up
A key thing to look at when deciding how to bet on the New Mexico vs Clemson lines is the fact these two teams play radically different brands of basketball. The Lobos are one of the fastest-paced teams in Division 1, as evidenced by their No. 8 ranking in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric and by how much they shoot the ball.
New Mexico averaged the fourth-most field goal attempts in college basketball this season and the most two-pointers, owing to their goal of getting up and down the court as often as possible and their lack of reliance on the three-pointer.
Pitino’s team isn’t terribly efficient on offense (41st per KenPom) but it’s a top-20 team in scoring average just based on its pace and how good its top scorers are. Four Lobos average double-digits in points per game and they do so mostly within the three-point arc. Jaelen House (son of former NBA player Eddie House), Jamal Mashburn Jr. (son of former NBA player Jamal Mashburn), Donovan Dent and JT Toppin combine to make just over four triples per game, which is peanuts compared to what most teams’ top scorers do.
New Mexico wants to force turnovers — the Lobos are one of the best teams in the country at doing so — and getting out on the break so they can score as quickly as possible and force the other team to match their tempo and point total. It’s tough to play against that style when facing a New Mexico that can boast multiple dynamic scorers and a pestering defense that is 20th in the country in steals. No wonder the NCAA basketball odds like them.
Tigers Want to Control Pace
Clemson couldn’t be any more different. The Tigers are 260th in adjusted tempo and don’t force any turnovers. Where they thrive is in the halfcourt on both offense and defense. On offense, they want to funnel the ball to inside-outside threat PJ Hall or the sharpshooting Joe Girard who, at 42.5%, is one of the country’s best three-point shooters.
Otherwise, nothing really stands out statistically about Clemson besides the fact that the Tigers are elite at the free throw line, converting on 79% of their opportunities at the charity stripe. However, they don’t take many free throws (just 18 per game) so that usually isn’t a big part of their game. In close tournament games, though, free throw shooting is critical and the Tigers have an enormous advantage over the Lobos in that area. The New Mexico vs Clemson lines don’t seem to account for that.
If Clemson can succeed in not turning the ball over — which the Tigers are good at — and thus not allowing New Mexico to play with pace on the fastbreak, then they could be in a good position.
Take Clemson to Cover
You can typically throw the men’s college basketball rankings and seedings out in the NCAA Tournament and even more so in the first round. Clearly, that’s what Vegas did when setting the line for this game. And while it’s true that New Mexico looks like the better team on paper — and has more offensive weapons than Clemson — look for this game to be one that goes right down to the wire. So, the Tigers can cover the 2.5-spread.
They’ll also be playing in Memphis which is only a reasonable drive from South Carolina as opposed to a cross-country flight from New Mexico. Every little edge helps.
Clemson’s free throw proficiency should play a role too and cannot be overlooked. Also, New Mexico’s lack of reliable three-point shooting would make a comeback effort difficult if the Lobos fall behind early. Their pace, turnover-forcing defense, and high-end talent give the Lobos a great chance but that spread is a little big for such closely matched opponents.
The over/under is a different story because that looks like too few points for teams that can score like New Mexico and Clemson can. Go with the over.
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