Michigan State vs Wisconsin Odds: Big Ten Battle Best Game of Day
No. 13 Badgers Small Home Favorites Against Spartans
The Michigan State Spartans (12-7) visit the No. 13 Wisconsin Badgers (15-4) in the best college basketball game on an abbreviated schedule. The Spartans have won three straight games to improve to 4-4 in the Big Ten Conference. That still leaves them three games behind Wisconsin in the Big Ten college basketball standings. The Badgers have won their last two games after losing at Penn State for their only conference loss. The Michigan State vs Wisconsin odds show the Badgers are favored by 3 points and the total on the game is 137.5.
Spartans vs Badgers 
Day/Time:
Location: Kohl Center, Madison, Wisconsin
Streaming: Watch Live Sports
Spartans Struggle on Road
One reason Michigan State is 12-7 on the season is the team’s 10-2 record at home. But that also means Michigan State is just 2-5 in road games. The Spartans win by an average NCAAB score of 78-63 at home and lose by an average of 74-68 on the road. Michigan State is 10-8-1 against the spread this season. The Spartans are 9-10 in totals and 3-4 on the road.
Overall, the Spartans are scoring 76.2 points per game. The team is shooting 47.4% from the field, making 52.6% of its 2-pointers and 36.2% on 3-pointers. Michigan State has seen its 3-point shooting improve to 40.5% in Big Ten NCAAB games, while 2-point shooting has dropped to 48.6%.
The Spartans do a good job of keeping turnovers down and are average in getting offensive rebounds. Michigan State hasn’t gotten to the foul line much in conference games.
Defensively, the Spartans allow 65.2 points per game, but are allowing 68.4 in conference games. Michigan State allows teams to shoot 49.4% on 2-pointers in conference games and 34.1% on 3-pointers. But the Spartans do a decent job forcing turnovers and preventing offensive rebounds.
Badgers Off to Strong Start
Wisconsin’s 15-4 record is pretty impressive considering its played the eighth-toughest schedule in the country, according to KenPom. The Badgers are scoring 75.7 points per game and allowing 66.9.
At home, Wisconsin allows the same 66.9 points, but sees its scoring shoot up to 80.6 points. That’s why the Badgers are 8-3 in totals at home, but just 10-9 overall. Wisconsin is 11-8 against the spread and 7-4 at home.
The Badgers have seen their offensive rebounds go down and their turnovers go up since Big Ten games began. That’s to be expected. But Wisconsin is also shooting a lot better in conference, which is a bit of a surprise. In conference games, the Badgers are shooting 41.9% on 3-pointers and 54.5% from 2-point range. Both of those are tops in the conference.
But the Badgers can also play defense. Wisconsin is one of the best NCAAB teams in the country preventing offensive rebounds. The Badgers also don’t send teams to the foul line often. But Wisconsin does allow the opposition to make some shots. The Badgers rank in the bottom third of the league in defensive field goal percentage. But Wisconsin does enough of the other things correctly to make up for that.
What to Expect
The Spartans play at a pretty average pace. They don’t push the ball up-and-down the court consistently, but they don’t walk it up every possession, either. Michigan State is seeing more of its points in conference games coming from 3-pointers. So you have to believe MSU will take its share of outside shots.
The Badgers prefer to slow things down. Wisconsin ranks No. 326 in the nation in adjusted pace and No. 14 in the Big Ten Conference. But the Badgers shoot so well, it hasn’t kept them from scoring a fair number of points.
Who to Bet On?
The Michigan State vs Wisconsin odds of Badgers -3 is a little bit low. Especially when you factor in the home and away performances of both teams. The NCAAB predictions using strength of schedule have Wisconsin winning 70-66 when using overall numbers. But using just home and away scoring averages show the Badgers winning by double digits.
The Michigan State vs Wisconsin odds on the total is pretty much where you would expect. The Badgers are never an easy team to bet over the total due to their slowdown style. But Wisconsin has a solid over record in home games this season. Michigan State has gone 1-4 in totals when an underdog this NCAAB season, so there are some conflicting trends on the over/under.
Strictly from a value standpoint, the Badgers are the side to look at. Wisconsin has the better record and is exceptionally tough at home. So take the Badgers -3 for one of your NCAAB picks for Friday.
For NCAAB betting news, NCAAB odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
