March Madness Round 1: Michigan St vs Mississippi St Betting Spreads & Score
Veteran Spartans Have A Tough Second Round Matchup
Michigan State vs Mississippi State Final Score
Michigan State vs Mississippi State Preview
March Madness is finally here! The first round — not the First Four, which starts on Tuesday in Dayton as always — of the 2024 NCAA Tournament tips off this Thursday afternoon in Charlotte as the No. 9 seed Michigan State Spartans take on the No. 8 seed Mississippi State Bulldogs. There’s nothing quite like that first game which kicks off two days of legitimately wall-to-wall basketball. For at least a half hour or so, all eyes will be on this game in which the Spartans are slightly favored on the Michigan State vs Mississippi State betting spreads.
It was slightly surprising to see Mississippi State on the No. 8 seed-line because Chris Jans’ team finished the regular season on a four-game losing streak to wind up 8-10 in the SEC. But, the Bulldogs got a great win over a top-five opponent in Tennessee in the conference tournament — before losing to Auburn — which probably pushed Mississippi State over Michigan State, who beat Minnesota in the Big Ten Tournament before falling to Purdue in a close game. These are two solid March Madness teams.
Michigan State is a 1-point favorite, showing just how much Vegas cares about what the seeding situation is here. The over/under is currently 130 points but that could fluctuate as we get closer to Thursday. The Spartans have that impressive tournament pedigree under Tom Izzo and are coming off a Sweet 16 appearance in 2023 while the Bulldogs lost in the First Four a year ago and have now made the tourney in each of Jans’ first two seasons in Starkville.
Michigan State vs Mississippi State 
Records: Spartans (19-14)/Bulldogs (21-13)
Location: Spectrum Center; Charlotte, North Carolina
Day/Time:
Streaming: CBS
Continuity Is Key
Both of these teams heavily feature upperclassman and, for the most part, are running back similar rosters as they had a season ago. The exception for Michigan State — which saw its tourney run end against Kansas State in a high-scoring instant classic — is that Joey Hauser has since graduated but guys like Tyson Walker, Malik Hall, A.J. Hoggard, and Jaden Akins are all back. Those four guys play a ton for Izzo and do the majority of Michigan State’s scoring. For the Spartans to cover the Michigan State vs Mississippi State betting spreads and win, they’ll need all of them to step up.
Mississippi State is a deeper team than Michigan State and routinely runs a 9- or 10-man rotation based on the game. The Bulldogs are an extremely senior-laden team with true freshman (and leading scorer) Josh Hubbard being the only underclassman who is a key contributor. Hubbard scores over 17 points per game but he’s very inefficient so the Bulldogs’ most reliable point-scorer is interior presence Tolu Smith III. Smith III had 13 points and 8 rebounds in Mississippi State’s tournament loss to Pittsburgh last season.
The Bulldogs’ other three top scorers from that game — D.J. Jeffries, Shakeel Moore and Dashawn Davis — are all back as well so this team really has a lot of experience playing together. That doesn’t always mean a lot when you’re making free NCAAB picks but it’s better to have at least some continuity during high-pressure moments in crunch-time.
Who Can Make Threes?
This game might come down to which of these teams is able to find a groove from downtown. Neither Michigan State nor Mississippi State takes or makes a lot of threes, it just isn’t a big part of either team’s game plan. The Spartans take fewer than 18 threes per game (325th most in Division 1) while the Bulldogs shoot just 32.5% from long-distance (264th in Division 1). These teams do their damage much closer to the basket.
Interestingly, the Spartans shoot around 36% from three which is a top-75 figure nationally so it’s not like they don’t have some capable shooters. Tyson Walker and Jaden Akins both shoot 36% or better from three so they’ll be crucial for the Michigan State vs Mississippi State betting spreads.
Hubbard is the Bulldogs’ only volume three-point shooter and while he’s not bad (just under 36%), his overall inefficiency makes it tough for Mississippi State to generate consistent offense when the ball is stuck with him.
Free Throws and Turnovers Win (Or Lose) Tourney Games
Two other key statistical areas that pop out when looking at these teams are free throw shooting and turnover rate. As a team that cannot rely on perimeter scoring to put up points, Mississippi State goes to the basket a ton and draws a lot of fouls. They’ve been in the NCAA basketball rankings mix in large part because they’re a top-50 team in terms of getting to the free throw line.
However, they’ve shot just 67% at the charity stripe this season which is one of the lowest figures in all of college basketball. Hubbard is great at the line but Jans’ and other regulars are all 71% or worse. Michigan State isn’t much better but the Spartans don’t get there nearly as often. It’s tough to win close tournament games when you only have one trustworthy free throw shooter.
Also, the Spartans turn the ball over on less than 10% of their possessions, an elite rate. They just don’t give possessions away and that allows for Michigan State to have a decent offense despite getting pretty much nothing from outside. Mississippi State turns the ball over on almost 13% of its possessions, which doesn’t seem like a huge jump but makes a big difference in a one – or two-possession game.
Look for Michigan State and its No. 8 (by KenPom ratings) defensive efficiency to force a bunch of key Bulldogs’ mistakes. The Spartans should take this game and they’re only favored by a single point which is very enticing. The under is also a good idea considering these teams’ offensive limitations.
For NCAAB betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
