SMU vs FAU Preview: Owls Favored at Home
Mustangs Shooting for 20th Win of Season
One of the best games on Thursday’s NCAAB schedule is the AAC matchup with SMU visiting FAU. Florida Atlantic will have to rebound from a tough loss at South Florida. That game pretty much decided the conference’s regular season title.
USF leads the Owls and Mustangs by 2.5 games. SMU enters the game on a six-game winning streak to move to 19-7 on the year. The Mustangs will be looking for their 20th win of the season. FAU is 20-6 for the year. The SMU vs FAU preview shows that the Owls are favored by 6.5 points. The total on the game is at 154 points.
Mustangs vs Owls 
Day/Time:
Location: Baldwin Arena, Boca Raton, Florida
Streaming: ESPN 2
Mustangs a Well-Rounded Team
SMU is a pretty solid team on offense and defense. In the KenPom American Athletic efficiency ratings, the Mustangs are No. 2 in conference games. The defense is No. 3. The Mustangs are 13-10-2 against the spread and 7-3-1 away from home.
SMU is 7-5-1 ATS in conference games this season. The Mustangs are scoring more points and allowing more in AAC games. As a result, SMU is 12-13 in totals for the year, but 9-4 in conference games.
Offensively, SMU is a solid scoring team from inside the paint. The Mustangs are No. 2 in AAC play in 2-point shooting at 53.4%. SMU helps its own cause by being the best college basketball team in the conference grabbing offensive rebounds.
The Mustangs don’t get to the line a whole lot and are pretty average in the turnover department. SMU plays to its strength, with 55.4% of its points scored on 2-point field goals.
The SMU Mustangs do a good job forcing turnovers and blocking shots on defense. SMU’s 2-point defense is a little better than the 3-point defense.
The Mustangs allow 48.7% on 2-point shots, which is No. 5 in the conference. SMU holds its own in rebounding, but does allow a few second chances. The Mustangs haven’t done bad on the road defensively, holding teams to 40.2% from the field.
Owls Boast Best Offense in AAC
The only team in the conference with a better offensive efficiency rating is FAU. The Owls are scoring 83.4 points per game and shooting 48.1% from the field. But after last year’s run in the NCAA Tournament, FAU has been a little over-valued by bettors.
The Owls are 12-14 against the spread this season. In AAC play, it’s been even worse, where FAU is 3-10 ATS. The Owls are 13-12-1 in totals this season and 7-5-1 in conference games.
The Owls are in the top five of the AAC in most of the offensive college basketball stats. FAU is a decent shooting team, although not a great one. But Florida Atlantic doesn’t make many turnovers and is strong on offensive rebounds. The Owls shoot a fair number of 3-pointers and are decent from the outside.
The biggest problem FAU has had this season has been on the defensive end. The 2-point defense in particular, is pretty weak. The Owls are No. 11 in the conference in 2-point defense and No. 5 in 3-point defense.
As a result, teams shoot fewer 3-pointers against FAU than any team in the conference. The FAU Owls don’t force a lot of turnovers, but are decent preventing offensive rebounds.
What to Expect
Florida Atlantic plays at a quick pace, while SMU is a bit more deliberate. The Owls will try to run and the Mustangs will play their game. The Mustangs may go a little bit slower than normal and work on getting the ball inside. There’s no reason for the Mustangs not to attack FAU’s inside defense.
The SMU vs FAU preview expects the Owls to try plenty of 3-pointers in this one. The Mustangs are better inside and FAU might be able to do some damage from long range.
Who to Bet On?
The SMU vs FAU preview notes the point spread moved from Owls -5.5 to FAU -6.5 early Thursday morning. It’s difficult to tell if the move is the right one or not. The Mustangs are playing well, but FAU has bounced back well after a loss this season.
The total is a little bit tricky here. The number seems like a little bit on the high side. But the teams haven’t played in a while, so there’s nothing really to go off of there. The Mustangs have scored 87 or more points in three of their last four NCAAB games.
Looking at this game from strictly a value standpoint, the Mustangs +6.5 are probably the best side here. Maybe not enough to be one of your college basketball best bets tonight, but SMU is an easier case to make. Even though the Owls are 5-0 after a loss, the last one to USF has to hurt.
That game basically took the Owls out of the conference title picture. They could show a little bit of the effects here. Take the Mustangs +6.5 to keep it close.
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