Reeling Miami Looks to Turn Around Season Against No. 8 Duke
Duke vs Miami Expert Pick: Blue Devils Climb to 5.5-Point Favorites
The Miami Hurricanes, an NCAA Tournament darling last March, are in danger of missing the Big Dance altogether this NCAAB season. The Hurricanes are reeling with four straight losses ahead of Wednesday’s (7 p.m. ET) date with the eighth-ranked Duke Blue Devils.
Duke opened as 4.5-point favorites and was quickly bet up to -5.5. Meanwhile, the projected total moved a smidge from 150.5 to 150, with a slight lean to the Under at -115 odds.
What can bettors expect? Read on as we break down the Duke vs Miami expert pick.
Devils vs Hurricanes 
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Location: Watsco Center; Coral Gables, Fla.
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Duke vs Miami Betting Trends
The Duke Blue Devils are 14-10-1 ATS, including 3-4-1 away from home. Eleven of the Blue Devils’ 24 games have landed on the Under, including five on eight on the road. Meanwhile, the Miami Hurricanes are 14-11-1 ATS, including 9-5 at home. Miami has gone Under the total in 14 of its 26 games.
Be sure to remember these betting trends when analyzing the Duke vs Miami odds.
Duke More than One-Man Show
Despite a couple unexpected hiccups in ACC play, Duke is still mainly in the hunt for a conference title. The Blue Devils (20-5, 11-3) have won four straight and seven of their last eight NCAAB games to keep stay a half-game behind first-place North Carolina.
They are coming off a 76-67 win over Florida State on Saturday in which Jared McCain tied a Duke freshman record with 35 points on eight 3-pointers.
The Blue Devils rose one spot to No. 8 in the AP poll as they continue on a collision course with another top-four seed in the Big Dance. In fact, ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi has them as a No. 3 seed in his latest NCAA Tournament projections.
The loss to Georgia Tech is a stain on Duke’s resume, but the Blue Devils have done enough besides that to leave them in relatively good shape for March. A neutral-site win over No. 11 Baylor helps, as does a No. 17 NET ranking. The Blue Devils are also 11th in KenPom.
Oddsmakers are bullish, pricing Duke +600 to make the Final Four and +2500 to win the NCAA title, one of 13 schools with 25/1 championship odds or better.
Duke plays through center Kyle Filipowski. The 7-foot sophomore is averaging a team-high 17 points on 49.7% shooting to go with 8.3 rebounds. But as we saw Saturday, the Blue Devils have plenty more options to take over in a pinch. Jeremy Roach, McCain, Mark Mitchell, and Tyrese Proctor are all double-figure scorers.
Fittingly, Duke clocks in at 10th in adjusted offensive efficiency while ranking 41st in scoring (80.3). The Blue Devils’ biggest asset is their balance, as they have a potent presence in the paint in Filipowski and formidable perimeter shooting with Roach and McCain.
The Blue Devils are 19th nationally in 3-point shooting percentage (37.6), according to NCAA basketball scores.
Duke has been favored in nearly every game this season, with the exception of a 93-84 loss to North Carolina. In that case, the Blue Devils were 4.5-point underdogs. They are 14-9-1 ATS as favorites, including 8-7 when the spread hits double-digits. Keep that in mind when assessing the Duke vs Miami expert pick.
Hurricanes Reeling
Will Miami go from Final Four to NIT? It is becoming increasingly likely.
The Miami Hurricanes have lost four straight and five of their last six games to drop to 6-9 in ACC play and 15-11 overall. They are coming off an 85-77 loss to Boston College on Saturday as a 1-point underdog.
With two of its final five regular-season games coming against Duke and No. 10 North Carolina, Miami still has opportunities to pick up some signature wins. Even so, the Hurricanes — on the heels of their first-ever Final Four appearance — might have run out of time to righten the ship. Their weak peripheral college basketball rankings — No. 77 in NET, No. 80 in KenPom — certainly do not help.
Forward Norchad Omier is Miami’s leading scorer, averaging 17.8 points on 60.3% shooting to go with 9.8 rebounds and 1.6 steals. Florida State transfer Matthew Cleveland (14.0 PPG) has also stepped up.
However, guard Nigel Pack, one of the stars of last year’s NCAA Tournament run, has not played since Feb. 14 against Clemson because of a lingering knee injury. Pack is listed as questionable for Wednesday, raising the possibility that the Hurricanes could be shorthanded.
Miami has done itself no favors, ranking 67th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 112th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
The Hurricanes rank among the top 30 NCAAB teams nationally in 3-point shooting, however, lapses on the other end of the floor continue to negate that production. Against Boston College, for instance, they allowed 15 3-pointers on 30 attempts.
As an underdog, Miami is 4-6 ATS but just 2-8 OU. It has covered in only two of its last six games.
Injury Issues
Miami isn’t the only team dealing with NCAAB injuries. Duke is also banged up, as Proctor missed Saturday’s win with a concussion. Proctor did not travel with the team, and coach Jon Scheyer didn’t reveal much about his status during a conference call on Monday.
Scheyer said Proctor told him he’s “feeling better,” but he remains questionable.
Duke vs Miami Odds
For NCAAB betting odds to win March Madness, analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
