Strengths Collide as Iowa State Meets Illinois in NCAA Sweet 16
Illinois vs Iowa State Odds: Cyclones Down to -2 Favorites
Second-seeded Iowa State will meet third-seeded Illinois in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament, pitting the country’s No. 1 offense against its No. 1 defense. This East Regional semifinal will tip off at approximately 10:09 p.m. ET on Thursday at TD Garden in Boston.
Iowa State opened as a 2.5-point favorite but is down to -2 on the spread and -130 on the moneyline. Conversely, Illinois is +110 to win outright. The projected total is 146.5, with a slight edge to the Under at -112 odds.
What can bettors expect? Read on as we break down the Illinois vs Iowa State odds in our college basketball game preview.
NCAA Sweet 16: East Region
Cyclones vs Illini 
Day/Time:
Location: TD Garden; Boston
Streaming: TBS, truTV
Illinois vs Iowa State Betting Trends
The Illinois Fighting Illini have covered in four straight and are 20-13-3 ATS. Illinois’ games have trended toward the Over, as its record against the Over/Under is 26-10. Meanwhile, the Iowa State Cyclones are 25-10-1, including 7-2 over the last nine games. As for the Over/Under, the Cyclones are 17-19.
Be sure to remember these betting trends when assessing the Illinois vs Iowa State odds.
Illini Offense Stands Alone
Illinois (28-8) is on to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2005 following an 89-63 second-round victory over 11th-seeded Duquesne. The Fighting Illini — 10-point favorites and seeded third — hadn’t made it through the first weekend of the March Madness bracket in their last eight appearances.
Illinois’s offense has been fueled by its efficiency, which ranks first in the country in efficiency and ninth in scoring (84.6 PPG). Terrance Shannon Jr. is the Fighting Illini’s unquestioned No. 1 scorer, averaging 31.6 points over the last five games.
But they also have a strong supporting cast with depth as well. Marcus Domask and Coleman Hawkins are both instrumental in their success.
The Fighting Illini have won six straight and nine of their last 10 games, including a 93-87 victory over Wisconsin in the Big Ten Tournament championship. They now have 14 combined Quad 1 and 2 wins.
Brad Underwood’s team has been an underdog six times this NCAAB season. The Fighting Illini are 4-1-1 ATS and 3-3 OU in those games.
Additionally, they have hit the projected total in five straight games and are 26-10 against the Over/Under, equaling a cover rate of 72.2%. That ranks fourth in Division I and second among remaining NCAA Tournament teams.
Keep that in mind when analyzing the Illinois vs Iowa State odds.
Dominant Defense Fuels Cyclones
Iowa State (29-7) finds itself in the Sweet 16 for the second time in three seasons after beating seventh-seeded Washington State 67-56. The Cyclones — 6.5-point favorites and seeded second — covered for the fifth straight game to improve to 25-10-1 ATS, the fourth-best record in Division I.
Iowa State is the country’s stingiest defensive NCAAB team, ranking first in efficiency, fourth in opponents’ scoring (61.3 PPG allowed), and 12th in opponents’ shooting percentage. The Cyclones have allowed 65 points or fewer in 10 straight games, during which they are 9-1.
The Cyclones have won five straight games, including a 69-41 victory over Houston in the Big 12 Tournament final. They now have 16 combined Quad 1 and 2 wins.
Iowa State is balanced offensively, with four NCAAB players averaging double figures, led by guards Keshon Gilbert (13.7 PPG) and Tamin Lipsey (12.5 PPG). Ranking 49th in offensive efficiency but just 206th in tempo, the Cyclones specialize in grinding opponents down in the halfcourt.
The Cyclones have covered in five straight and are 25-10-1 ATS, equaling a cover rate of 71.4%. Only three Division I schools have performed at a better rate for bettors: Stony Brook (75.8%), Minnesota (73.5%) and Texas-Arlington (71.9%).
Handicapping the Odds
Of the eight regional semifinals NCAAB matchups, this may be the most fascinating. It’s the country’s No. 1 offense against its No. 1 defense. Iowa State has performed far better against ranked teams — two wins over Houston, in particular — but the Fighting Illini could be peaking at the right time.
Being in the same region as No. 1 overall seed and tournament favorite UConn, both Iowa State (+2000) and Illinois (+3500) have 20/1 or longer NCAA March Madness odds. At the same time, both schools appear capable of outlasting the field and winning it all.
Look for this game to go down to the wire.
For NCAAB public betting news, odds, analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
