2023 Birmingham Bowl: Troy Trojans vs Duke Blue Devils
Troy finished the Season Covering 8 of 9; Duke Dropped Four of Their Last Six ATS
The Birmingham Bowl kicks off this upcoming Saturday. We’ve got the latest updates on lines, injuries, departures and weather right here:
Both teams are going to have familiar faces roaming the sidelines but it won’t be the head coach they started the season off with. For the Troy Trojans, Jon Sumrall left to become the head coach at Tulane, while former Duke Blue Devils coach Mike Elko is headed to Texas A&M. Greg Gasparato will be the interim head coach for Troy while Trooper Taylor takes over at Duke.
Duke Quarterback Riley Leonard entered the transfer portal and will play at Notre Dame next season. Starting for the Blue Devils will be freshman Grayson Loftis who completed just shy of 54% of his passes this season to go with eight touchdowns and three interceptions. Of significance, The Devils will be without Aeneas Peebles, a massive loss on the defensive line. Safety Jalen Stinson (82 tackles) will also be unavailable. Duke will have a freshman at tailback after Jaquez Moore (1,121 yards rushing last two seasons).
For Troy, they’ll have the more experienced quarterback on the field with senior Gunnar Watson behind center. Watson finished the season with 27 touchdowns and five interceptions and will be flanked by his dangerous running back Kimani Vidal who finished with 1,582 yards rushing, including a 233-yard effort against Appalachian State in the Sun Belt Championship game to go with 5 touchdowns.
With Troy having the big gun advantage, we’ve seen 79% of the money come in on the Trojans, pushing the spread up to -7 in favor of Troy after opening the Trojans as 4.5-point favorites. Surprisingly, the total has remained steady after opening at 44.5. Our official position on this game is Duke and under. This appears to be too easy and you know what happens when it looks like easy money. Do not forget that the Blue Devils still have a defensive system that is 31st in the country and they’ll be replacing their losses with inspired kids who want to make a name for themselves. If Duke stops the run we have a winner.
Now, check out the rest of the Birmingham Bowl preview, originally published on December 13:
The Troy Trojans (11-2) head to Alabama to take on the Duke Blue Devils (7-5) in the 2023 Birmingham Bowl. It will be the first time that either team has played in the 17-year history of the game. The Birmingham Bowl has been played every year except in 2020, since 2006 with South Florida owning the distinction of the best record (3-0) in the bowl’s history.
The game drew the smallest attendance in the history of the game when just 15,901 fans turned out when East Carolina crushed Coastal Carolina, 53-20. This year, oddsmakers have made Troy a 7-point favorite with a total of 44. Early betting patterns show 62% of the tickets have come in on Troy, but don’t expect that number to move. If anything, we’ll see a change in the juice. *NOTE: (The opening line was -4.5) Stay tuned for any changes.
So far, this has been one of the least bet games among the NCAA Football Bowl odds. We start our 2023 Birmingham Bowl betting preview with a deeper look at the Troy Trojans.
2023 Birmingham Bowl
Troy Trojans vs Duke Blue Devils 
Records: Troy Trojans (11-2) vs. Duke Blue Devils (7-5)
Day/Time:
Location: Protective Stadium, Birmingham, Alabama
Streaming: ABC
Troy Has Been One Of The Best In All Of College Football
We don’t think people get just how good Troy has been over the last two seasons. Either the public thinks they’re a small college in upstate New York or the school that will never be as good as the school from the West Coast with the same nickname. Not only are they not from New York (Alabama) but there is no argument that they’ve been better than USC over the last two seasons with a shiny 23-4 record and two straight Sun Belt championships. If that track record extends into next season, it makes you wonder how a 12-team playoff would benefit the program.
Without it, the Trojans would never get close to a College Football championship game, but starting next year we can dream. The only bad stretch of games for Troy and bettors was at the beginning of the season when they failed to cover their first four games while starting the season 2-2 straight-up. Since a 3-point win against Western Kentucky as a 3.5-point favorite, the Trojans went on to cover eight of their next nine games. T
roy leans on a defense that allowed just 17.2 points per game (10th in the nation) and quarterback Gunner Watson who has thrown for an average of 263 yards per game, averaging two touchdown passes per game to go with just two interceptions all season. The Trojans are now an incredible 19-6 ATS over the last two seasons and 12-5 ATS as a favorite.
It’s reasonable to think the Trojans will have a home-field advantage with their campus and Birmingham separated by just a little over two hours. That might be good news or less than good depending on how you look at it. Troy is riding a perfect 6-0 ATS mark as a visitor but just 6-5 ATS as a home team. Before that hurts your head too much, the Trojans have won five straight bowl games dating back to 2010 and are 8-4 overall in bowl games.
Departures & Injuries
It looks like the Trojans are clear of injuries and without massive losses to the transfer portal as they head towards their 13th bowl game in program history. It will be interesting to see how long it will be before head coach Jon Sumrall is linked to other jobs, like maybe the Tulane opening, but considering the second-year coach is from Huntsville, Alabama, he may be very comfortable right where he is, and certainly will on the sidelines for his team’s bowl game. We continue our 2023 Birmingham Bowl preview by turning our attention to the Duke Blue Devils.
Duke Was Never The Same After Loss To Irish
It was week five and the Duke Blue Devils were on the verge of one of the biggest signature wins in program history. Duke came into the game 4-0 and 17th in the country against the 11th-ranked Irish at home. The Blue Devils held a 14-13 lead with 32 seconds left before Audric Estime ripped off a 30-yard touchdown run to rip the hearts out of Mike Elko’s team who has recently departed his team to become the head coach at Texas A&M.
That started Duke into a 3-5 straight-up and ATS run. Despite the slide, their NCAA Football stats are impressive with 19.8 points allowed per game (22nd in the nation) and 39th in passing yards allowed with just 208.3 per game (39th). Like Troy, Duke has been impressive against the number over the last two seasons with 15 covers in their last 23 games, but just 5-6 ATS on the road.
Departures & Injuries
We already know that Duke will be without their head coach, but the question is, how will that affect them when it comes to betting on this game? We see the total has maintained its opening number of 44 but the juice is back to -110 after opening -115 under.
It goes a little deeper than just Elko leaving because word is that the Aggies will also hire Duke’s OL coach Adam Cushing and cornerback coach Ishmail Aristide and we don’t know if that’s it because Elko stated he would be bringing ‘quite a few guys from Duke to College Station”. We are pretty sure that two isn’t quite a few so perhaps there is more to come. With Elko’s departure, there are sure to be kids entering the transfer portal and there are some big names unavailable against Troy.
We know that quarterback Riley Leonard is gone, leaving Duke with two freshman quarterbacks to win a bowl game. Linebacker Dorian Mausi who was a mainstay at linebacker will also transfer along with DE Aeneas Peebles and DE RJ Oben. These losses are the reasons why Duke is a touchdown dog in this one.
This Game Will Be Like A Box Of Chocolates
There is no official word on who will start at quarterback for Duke in this one, It will likely be freshman Henry Belin IV has thrown just 26 passes this season, completing 13 of them. Grayson Loftis is an option too after seeing action in five games including starts against Pittsburgh (20-37-248 yards, 2 TD, 1INT) and Virginia (26-45-278 yards, 2TD, 1INT). You would think that Loftis would be the choice against Troy but as of now, Belin is listed ahead of Loftis on the depth chart. To conclude our 2023 Birmingham Bowl preview, we think this will be a wild game but it will likely all come from the Trojans. We favor the under in this match-up.
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