The Air Force Falcons (7-0) visit the Colorado State Rams (3-4) on Saturday in a Mountain West Conference battle. The No. 19 Falcons are 4-0 in the conference’s CFB standings, one-half game in front of 3-0 UNLV. Colorado State is just 1-2 in conference play but has been playing better as of late. The Rams are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games. The Air Force vs Colorado State odds have the Falcons favored by 12 points and the total on the game is at 48.5 points.
Location: Globe Life Field, Arlington, Texas
Streaming: CBS Sports Network
Line: Air Force -12
Nothing’s Changed For Falcons
It isn’t difficult to figure out what the Air Force is going to do offensively. The Falcons are going to run the ball. Air Force runs 56.9 times per game and throws 4.7 passes. But the Falcons happen to be very good at running the ball, rushing for 5.4 yards per carry and 307.9 yards per game. Air Force’s opponents allow 5.0 yards per carry, which takes a little bit of luster off the Falcons’ rushing average. The Falcons don’t throw often, but they make it count when they do. The team averages 88.4 passing yards per game and 18.8 yards per attempt. The Falcons score 34.1 points per game against teams allowing 29.8.
Defensively, the Falcons are solid, especially against the run. Air Force is allowing just 13.4 points per game and 71.1 rushing yards. Teams average 2.6 yards per carry against the Falcons and Air Force just held Navy to 22 rushing yards. The Falcons are better than average against the pass, allowing 154.3 yards per game to teams averaging 180.9. Air Force has allowed more than 200 passing yards in three of its last five games.
Colorado State to Throw It Around
The Rams aren’t necessarily a bad offensive team. They’re a little below average, scoring 28 points per game against teams allowing 31.7 points. That’s not bad considering the rushing game is pretty dismal, gaining just 74.3 yards per game and 2.9 yards per carry. Colorado State is unlikely to have any success on the ground against Air Force, so rushing attempts should be low. The Rams can move the ball through the air, throwing for 313.5 yards per game. Colorado State should make some plays against the Falcons’ secondary. It’s a matter of how many.
The defense hasn’t been very good, allowing 35.8 points per game to teams scoring 32. The Rams are better against the run than the pass, which should help them in this game. Colorado State will have to make some defensive stops or the Flacons will chew up the clock and leave the defense on the field a long time.
What to Expect
The game plan for both teams isn’t too hard to figure out. The Falcons are going to run the ball. The Rams are going to throw the ball, so each team will be doing what it does best. Colorado State’s defense will have to come up big, something it hasn’t always done this season. The Rams are 5-1 in totals against the NCAAF odds, with a lot of that having to do with not being able to stop the opposition.
From an NCAAF schedule standpoint, this isn’t the best of spots for Air Force. The Falcons are coming off the game with Navy and have Army up next. The Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy is still a huge deal for the service academy teams and can’t be overstated here.
The Falcons have been excellent as an away favorite, going 8-2 straight-up and against the spread the last three seasons. But Colorado State is 4-1 as an underdog this season, so the trends cancel each other out.
Who to Bet On?
The Air Force vs Colorado State odds of Falcons -12 could be a shade high. The Falcons are about 14 to 15 points better than Colorado State on a neutral field. But the Rams match up a little better with Air Force than some other NCAAF teams do. Colorado State’s inability to run the ball could work to its advantage a little bit here. It will force the Rams to throw more, which is what they do best.
The Air Force vs Colorado State odds on the total appear to be a shade low. But it’s still the second-highest total the Falcons have had this season. It’s also the lowest total Colorado State has seen this year.
The Falcons are the better team, but the Rams are starting to play well and could hang around in this one. Have to take Colorado State +12 against Air Force.