App State vs Troy Prediction: Will Trojans Get it Done?
Mountaineers Visit Troy For Sun Belt Championship
The Appalachian State Mountaineers got hot when it mattered most, earning a spot in the Sun Belt Conference Championship game. The Mountaineers finished second in the East with a 6-2 conference record. But with James Madison ineligible to play for the championship, the Mountaineers made it in. The team has a tough matchup against Troy, which will be playing in front of its home fans. The App State vs Troy prediction sees the Trojans favored by 6.5 and the total is 51.5.
Appalachian State Mountaineers vs Troy Trojans 
Day/Time:
Location: Veterans Memorial Stadium, Troy, Alabama
Streaming: ESPN
Line: Troy -6.5
Total: 51.5
Mountaineers’ Offense Gets the Job Done
Appalachian State had its share of troubles this season. But the offense was usually the worst of the team’s troubles. The Mountaineers averaged 35.8 points per game on the season against teams that allowed 28.9 points. Appalachian State averaged 458 total yards per game, rushing for 179.6 and throwing for 278.4 yards. The Mountaineers averaged 4.8 yards per rush against teams that allowed 4.1 yards per carry and 8.4 yards per pass attempt against teams allowing 7.5 yards.
Defensively, it was a different story. The Mountaineers allowed 26.7 points per game to teams that scored 25 points. Appalachian State allowed 4.8 yards per rush to teams that averaged 4.2 yards per carry, while the pass defense was pretty average. But with Appalachian State’s defense, being pretty average somewhere isn’t necessarily bad.
The Mountaineers were 3-4 after seven games, but a five-game win streak to close out the season moved them to second place in the Sun Belt Conference standings in the West. That was good enough to get to the championship game, which is what it’s all about. Appalachian State is 6-5-1 against the spread and 6-6 in totals.
Troy Defense Drives the Team
The Trojans aren’t a bad offensive team. Troy averaged 29.7 points against teams that allowed 29.5 points. But the Trojans were 10-2 straight-up and 7-5 against the college football betting lines thanks to a defense that allowed 16.7 points to teams averaging 28.9 points. The Trojans were 5-7 in total.
Troy hasn’t rushed the ball very well, averaging 4.3 yards per carry against teams that have allowed 4.6 yards per rush. The Trojans run slightly more than they pass, but much of that has to do with the game situation. Troy is more likely to run the ball when it’s just trying to work the clock. But Troy is a better passing team, throwing for 273.3 yards per game and 8.3 yards per pass attempt. With the defense doing its part, the Trojans don’t have to be great offensively.
Troy is solid against the run, allowing just 3.2 yards per carry and 104.1 yards per game. The Trojans also hold teams to fewer than 200 passing yards per game, allowing 6.5 yards per pass attempt and 198 yards. Troy did a solid job of making teams work for each point, allowing a point for every 18.1 yards allowed.
What to Expect
Appalachian State is playing well and moving the ball on the ground or through the air. The Trojans are tough against the run, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Appalachian State make more effort to get the passing game going. But the Mountaineers won’t abandon the running game completely.
The Trojans like to run the ball, although it’s not very effective. But a number of those rushes occur in the second half when the game is out of reach. Troy will likely look to throw a bit more early. That’s where the Mountaineers have had the most troubles during the season. The running defense hasn’t been good, but it did pick up a little bit down the stretch. The Mountaineers held their final four opponents to 3.7 or fewer yards per rushing attempt.
Who to Bet On?
These two teams have played comparable schedules during the season. The Sagarin college football ratings have Appalachian State with the No. 108 NCAAF schedule 2023, while Troy is at No. 111. You can’t give an edge to either team.
The App State vs Troy prediction has to take into consideration the recent improved play of Appalachian State. They became the only team to beat James Madison this season and the Mountaineers covered the spread the last four games of the year.
The Trojans were strong in the second half of the season, winning nine straight games after a 1-2 start. Troy covered the spread in seven of its final eight games after starting off 0-4 ATS.
The App State vs Troy prediction believes the line is a little on the high side here and will side with the Mountaineers +6.5 points.
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