Redhawks, Rockets Rumble For MAC Championship
Miami vs Toledo Lines Have Rockets Favored
The Miami Redhawks and No. 23 Toledo Rockets face off on Saturday to determine the Mid-American Conference Championship winner. They were the two best teams in the MAC during the season, so it’s only fitting they’ll play in the title game. The two were a combined 15-1 in MAC this season. The lone loss for one team came when Toledo defeated Miami 21-17 on Oct. 21. The Miami vs Toledo lines have the Rockets favored by 8 points on a neutral field and the total on the game is 46.
Miami (OH) Redhawks vs Toledo Rockets 
Day/Time:
Location: Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan
Line: Toledo -8
Total: 46
Streaming: ESPN
Redhawks Led by Solid Defense
Miami isn’t a great offensive college football team. The Redhawks put up decent numbers. But a lot of that has to do with the competition they played. Miami averaged 27.3 points per game, but their opponents allowed 29.7 points on average. The Redhawks throw for 180.3 yards per game against teams allowing 204.4 yards, so Miami is a little below the average offense.
But the Redhawks don’t have to do a lot offensively when your defense allows 16.3 points per game to teams averaging 22.2 points. Miami is pretty solid against the run and the pass. The defense stepped up when it counted most, allowing a point for every 19.8 yards given up.
The Redhawks had a strong showing against the scores and odds NCAAF this season. Miami was 9-3 against the point spread. The Redhawks were strong avenging a loss from last season, going 5-0 ATS this year and they’re 8-2 against the number over the past three seasons. They’ll be playing with revenge from their earlier loss to Toledo.
Ranked Rockets an Offensive Force
Toledo is No. 23 in the latest Associated Press NCAAF rankings. The defense is pretty solid. But the offense is especially tough, scoring 35.3 points per game. The Rockets can run the ball or pass, so defenses can’t look to stop one aspect of the Toledo attack.
Toledo prefers to run the football, averaging 38.6 rushes and 25.6 passes per game. The Rockets run and throw for more than 200 yards per game and their 6.8 yards per play was a full yard better than the 5.8 yards per play allowed by the opposition.
The offense gets all the ink, but the Rockets are pretty good stopping the opposition. Toledo allowed 20.4 points to teams averaging 22.5 points on the NCAAF season. The Rockets were solid against the run and the pass. Neither was particularly better than the other. Toledo is just a good all-around defense.
It was an up-and-down season for Toledo bettors, however. The CFB scores scored the Rockets winning five consecutive college football games between Sept. 16 and Oct. 14. But Toledo failed to cover the point spread in any of them. Despite going 11-1 straight-up, the Rockets were just 6-6 against the point spread.
What to Expect
From Miami’s perspective, it has to start the game better than it did when the teams met during the regular season. Toledo jumped out to a 21-3 halftime lead and held on for the victory. Despite not being designed to come from behind, the Redhawks gave it a solid effort. But two second-half turnovers turned out to be the difference in the game.
Toledo rushed for 158 yards in the first meeting, but gained just 3.4 yards per carry. Still, it was enough to run time off the clock and hang on for the victory. The Rockets are going to try and run the ball again. That gives them the best chance to win the game.
Who to Bet On?
The Miami vs Toledo lines seem a shade high on the point spread. The Rockets were favored by 2 points on the road when they met earlier and now its a neutral field in Detroit. It’s unlikely the Redhawks have a 6-point advantage for playing at home. But a number like that also gives you a little pause. The sportsbook posted Toledo -8 for a reason. But when you’re in doubt, it’s always best to look at the total or at a different game.
The Miami vs Toledo lines also appear to be a shade high on the total. The over/under was 46.5 when the teams met earlier and that was a 21-17 final score. You’d expect this one to be closer to 44.5 or 45 after the first game and the fact that this is a more meaningful game. The under 46 in this game makes the most sense, so that’s the look in the MAC title game.
For NCAAF betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
