CFB Week 13: Cal Golden Bears vs UCLA Bruins Line Preview
Bears Have Covered 3 of Last 4, Bruins Failed to Cover 4 of Last 6
As we reach the end of the NCAA college football schedule, there is one more regular season Pac-12 game to go for each of these schools when the California Golden Bears (5-6 / 3-5) head to Pasadena, with a bowl bid on the line, to take on the UCLA Bruins (7-4 / 4-4) at the Rose Bowl.
UCLA is fresh off their signature win of the season after handing the USC Trojans a 38-20 loss on the road as a 5-point underdog. According to NCAAF team stats, It was their first cover since October 21st at Stanford.
California has won back-to-back games for the first time all season after beating and covering at Stanford, 27-15, as a 7-point favorite. UCLA is a 9.5-point favorite after opening at -10.5. Kick-off is scheduled for 10:30 p.m. ET / 7:30 p.m. PT and can be seen on ESPN. Let’s start our California vs UCLA line analysis starting with the Bears.
Cal Golden Bears vs UCLA Bruins 
Day/Time:
Location: Rose Bowl Stadium, Pasadena, CA
Stream: ESPN
Bears Success Comes Down To Ott
Cal has put together their first win streak of the college football season because they’ve controlled the line of scrimmage, being the running of Jayden Ott who has 333 yards combined against Washington State and Stanford.
He fully remembers how the Bruins kept him in check last year, making Cal one-dimensional in UCLA’s 35-28 win. In a battle of offensive and defensive lines, we’ll take the Bruins, but one has to wonder if UCLA Bruins is going to overlook Cal with very little on the line after regaining the Victory Bell with a win over their biggest rival.
Even though the Bears are in a position to play in a bowl game with a win, they have not done well as a dog against the number, losing four of six games this season and 0-3 ATS as a road dog, but will any of that matter Saturday? Bettors have to figure out if their lack of past success should weigh heavier than betting on a team that will easily be the more motivated of the two. Let’s continue our California vs UCLA line analysis by turning our attention to the Bruins.
Can UCLA Get Back Up For Cal?
The Bruins are clearly the better of the two teams here, but bettors don’t think they’re going to win a massive road game against the Trojans and then come home to play Cal while being asked to cover a large number. There is no doubt that UCLA leans on a defensive line that is averaging almost four sacks a game, the second most in College Football according to the latest NCAA Football team stats report.
We talked about the Bears’ need to run the ball effectively and their path to success may have gotten easier with the NCAAF injury to Jay Toia who left the game last week after a leg injury. His numbers won’t jump off the page, but his presence in the middle has allowed others to put up massive sack numbers.
His status is still unknown for Saturday, but if he does play, the future NFL linemen will be less than 100%. The Bruins are just 3-4 ATS this season as a favorite, and are just 1-3 ATS as a home favorite. We conclude our Cal vs UCLA line analysis with our official selection.
Bettors Have This One Right
When bettors saw the ten and the hook, they were all over it, and rightfully so, The number is a little less attractive now, but with the California Golden Bears desperate to win this game outright, 9.5 points is still more than attractive.
Cal has been building a solid future for years, and you can see that in their ATS numbers that show them covering 18 of their last 32 games (Since 2021). In that span, they’re 10-8 ATS as an underdog and a respectable 8-8 ATS on the road. Since 2016, the Bears are 4-3 ATS against the Bruins and 3-1 as an underdog. Expect the Bears to have a better time running the ball between the tackles than last year, take the generous points in this one.
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