Analyzing College Football Week 13 Line Moves: Insights

There have been several college football line moves this week, although most were minor. There were a couple of larger line moves on totals, which is to be expected this time of year. Many of the line moves involve teams with five wins. College football teams need six wins to become bowl-eligible, so 5-6 teams will be playing their hardest. But the sportsbook knows this, and the NCAAF Week 13 odds opened slightly against these teams. We’ll look at some of the college football Week 13 line moves and if they make sense from a value standpoint in this article.

Virginia Tech opened as 2-point favorites in the Commonwealth Clash, and the line is now VT -3. With the Hokies sitting at five wins, it’s a move that makes sense. But the Cavaliers will be doing their best to knock their rival out of bowl contention. So, neither team really has an emotional edge in this game. It’s going to come down to which team performs the best on Saturday.

The Hokies are scoring 26.2 points and allowing 24.9 points on the season. Virginia Tech runs the ball reasonably well, gaining 4.5 yards per rush against teams that allow 4.1 yards per carry. The passing offense is pretty average; not too bad, not too good. Virginia Tech is average against the run and a little better against the pass.

Virginia is 3-8 on the season but has covered four of its last five games. The Cavaliers lost at Miami by three and fell short at Louisville by a 31-24 score. So Virginia is playing well. The offense is pretty average, and the defense is a little below average. The Cavaliers are better against the pass than the run.

Virginia Tech -3 is still a decent wager. The Hokies can run the ball, and that’s Virginia’s biggest weakness on defense. A road team that can run the ball can take the crowd out of the game, which will be big. Take Virginia Tech -3.

Northern Illinois is another team sitting on five wins. The college football Week 13 line moves have seen this game move from Huskies -16 to NIU -19.5. Again, it’s hard to argue with those taking the favorite. But the big question is whether Northern Illinois can score enough to cover the point spread.

Northern Illinois isn’t an offensive team, averaging 24.2 points. The Huskies run the ball pretty well but don’t pass the ball with any consistency. The defense is solid, allowing 20.6 points per game. NIU is average defending the run, but pretty solid against the pass.

It’s been a forgettable season for Kent State, which enters the game with a 1-10 record. The Golden Flashes are just 2-8-1 against the point spread and have lost their last two games by 30 points. The team is averaging just 13.5 points per game and doesn’t run or pass very well. The defense allows too many big plays and is giving up 34.4 points in a conference that doesn’t see a lot of points.

The college football daily lines have seen this spread creep up to 19.5. Northern Illinois offensive struggles make it a tough number to lay, but the Huskies do look like the right side here.

One of the biggest college football Week 13 line moves came in this game, where Jacksonville State moved from 2-point underdogs to 3-point favorites. Apparently, bettors weren’t as impressed with New Mexico State’s win over Auburn as oddsmakers thought they would be. The Aggies were 24.5-point underdogs against Auburn but cruised to a 31-10 win.

Both NCAAF teams are 6-1 in Conference USA play. But Jacksonville State is ineligible to play in the title game, meaning Liberty will host New Mexico State in the conference championship game. That makes this game completely meaningless for New Mexico State. But for Jacksonville State, it’s a chance to show they belong in a bowl game.

While technically ineligible due to college football’s transitioning rules for programs moving up in class, the Gamecocks could be selected if there aren’t enough 6-6 or better teams to fill all 82 bowl spots. Sixty-seven teams have six wins, with 21 teams entering this weekend with five wins. Jacksonville State, along with James Madison and Tarleton State, will be watching the NCAAF scoreboard this weekend.

On the field, the teams are pretty comparable, with Jacksonville getting an edge on offense and New Mexico State getting the slightest of nods defensively. Both teams like to run the ball, but the Gamecocks are better at stopping the run. The Gamecocks won’t attempt many passes in this one, but may not have to if the running game gets untracked. All of the intangibles point to the Gamecocks, so take Jacksonville State -3.

For college football lines today, NCAAF News, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine

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