Liberty Strong Favorite in Conference USA Championship
NM State vs Liberty Spread Sees Flames Favored By 10.5
One of the more exciting college football championship games will be Friday’s Conference USA match-up between New Mexico State and No. 20 Liberty. The Flames finished the regular season unbeaten, but can’t be looking ahead to whatever bowl game might be in store. New Mexico State is playing good football at the moment, having upset Auburn and followed that up with a win over a decent Jacksonville State team in what was a definite letdown situation. The NM State vs Liberty Spread see the Flames favored by 10.5 points, and the total on the game is 54.5.
New Mexico State Aggies at Liberty Flames
Day/Time:
Location: Williams Stadium Stadium, Lynchburg, Virginia
StreamB1G+
Line-10.5
Total54
Aggies Improve Over Course of Season
New Mexico State began the season 2-3, but has run off eight straight victories to enter the title game with a 10-3 record. The Aggies also covered all eight games against the NCAAF odds to finish 10-2-1 against the point spread this year. New Mexico State was just 4-9 in totals.
The Aggies aren’t a great offensive team. New Mexico State averaged 28.2 points against defenses that allowed 31.1 points. New Mexico State moves the ball pretty well, averaging more than 200 yards per game on the ground and through the air. But the Aggies didn’t do a great job of punching the ball into the end zone.
New Mexico State scored a point for every 14.9 yards of offense against teams that allowed a point for every 13.4 yards given up. The Aggies were -2 in turnovers on the season, which didn’t help. But if they want to make this one close, the Aggies have to capitalize on opportunities.
New Mexico State was completely different on defense, where they allowed some yards, but kept teams out of the end zone. The Aggies allowed 19.7 points per game against teams that averaged 25.3 points per game. They gave up a point for every 18.9 yards allowed against teams who average a point for every 14.6 yards gained. New Mexico State is a little better against the run than the pass.
Flames Boast Best Running Game in College Football
Liberty led the nation in rushing yards per game, averaging 295.4 yards. That led the nation. The Flames averaged 6.0 yards per carry against teams that allowed 4.5 yards per game. With teams focusing on stopping the running game, the passing attack worked pretty well.
Liberty completed just 56.3% of its passes but gained 9.6 yards per pass attempt. That tied the Flames with the Oregon Ducks for No. 4 in the country. The passing game may not be pretty, but it’s certainly effective. With the running game and passing games working, the Flames averaged 40.1 points per game this season against teams that allowed 27.9.
The defense isn’t bad, allowing 21.7 points per game to teams that averaged 24.3 points. The Flames were better against the run and the pass. Liberty’s defense was tied for No. 6 in takeaways, averaging two per game. That helped the Flames go +8 in turnover margin during the year.
Liberty went 8-2 against the point spread in its first 10 games. But the Flames failed to cover their last two contests against big numbers. Liberty won by 14 and 24 points, so there was no threat of being upset, but the Flames came up a few points shy of covering the number. The Flames were 7-5 in totals.
What to Expect
New Mexico State runs more than it passes, and the Aggies will likely come out and see what they can do on the ground. The passing game isn’t bad, but New Mexico State has to control the ball some. The Aggies don’t want to leave their defense on the field too long. Liberty leads college football with just over 34 minutes of possession per game.
The Flames are going to come out and run the football. That’s what Liberty does best, and that’s what’s led to an undefeated season so far. The Flames will throw some. But they average more than twice as many running plays as they do passing plays.
Who to Bet On?
Liberty is a better team than New Mexico State, regardless of how you look at the game. The Flames get the edge in scoring margin, against common opponents and defeated New Mexico State early in the NCAAF season. Liberty controlled the clock for more than 37 minutes and had more rushing plays that the Aggies had offensive plays.
New Mexico State rushed for 7.1 yards per carry, but attempted just 24 running plays in the game. The Aggies threw 26 times. Liberty Flames outgained New Mexico State 526-339 and won the turnover margin 3-1. It’s no surprise the NCAA FB scores showed a 33-16 Liberty win.
Both teams do well in today’s situation. The NM State vs Liberty Spread show the Aggies were 5-1 ATS as an underdog this season. But the Flames were 8-4 against the spread as a favorite.
The Sagarin ratings have Liberty 8.58 points better than the Aggies on a neutral field. That would make the line pretty close to Liberty -11.5, which is right in line with the point spread.
The NM State vs Liberty Spreadhave several other trends that work in New Mexico State’s favor. But it’s going to come down to what team executes and doesn’t make mistakes.
New Mexico State is playing its best football of the season. The win over Auburn was a real confidence booster and think the Aggies can keep it close Friday night. Take New Mexico State +10.5.
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