Big Ten Championship Odds: Michigan Favored Big Over Purdue

It may seem like an afterthought after last week’s Michigan vs Ohio State game, but the Wolverines aren’t finished yet. Michigan (12-0, 9-0) still needs to beat Purdue (8-4, 6-3) to claim the Big Ten championship. Like several other college football games this week, there isn’t much doubt who the better team is. But as we saw when Michigan needed a last-second field goal to beat Illinois, anything can happen in college football.

Purdue wasn’t expected to be here. But a three-game winning streak to end the season coupled with Nebraska upsetting Iowa last week has the NCAAF team playing for the title. There’s never a good time to play Michigan but this week is as good of a spot as you’ll find. Michigan struggled with Illinois the week before Ohio State and now are in a huge letdown spot. But is Purdue good enough to take advantage?

Game of the Week

The Big Ten Championship odds have Michigan favored by 17 points after the Wolverines opened as 15.5-point chalk. Bettors must think the Wolverines won’t have any problem being focused for this game. Even with a loss the Wolverines are headed to the college playoffs. But why leave anything to chance?

On the moneyline, the Big Ten Championship odds have Michigan -900, with +600 the price on Purdue. The Wolverines opened close to -700 on the moneyline so no real surprise to see the price climb higher.

The Big Ten Championship odds on the total have seen the number climb from 50 to its current 52. The Wolverines were just 3-8-1 in totals this season, while Purdue was 6-5-1.

Michigan Wolverines

As the season went on it was clear the Big Ten was going to come down to Michigan and Ohio State. But it wasn’t that way at the start of the year. The Big Ten Championship odds on Michigan were +600 before the season started. Ohio State was -215.

The Wolverines used an incredibly weak non-conference schedule to work out some quarterback issues. By the time the first conference game arrived, Michigan was set. But it wasn’t easy, with Michigan pulling out a 34-27 win against Maryland and then beating Iowa by 13. The Wolverines did get better over time.

Offensively, Michigan is going to run the ball first. The Wolverines run 43 times per game and throw the ball 26 times. Michigan averages 244.9 yards on the ground and 214.6 through the air. The passing game gets a bad rap at times but the Wolverines have done well through the air. Michigan gains 8.1 yards per pass attempt against teams allowing 6.7 yards per pass. The Wolverines are completing 65% of their passes against foes who allow 59.4% completions. For the season, the Wolverines averaged 39.8 points, which is 15.3 more than their opponents allowed on average.

Defensively, the Wolverines hold foes to 12.7 points, which is 11.7 fewer points than they score on average. Michigan is solid against the pass and the run, with no weaknesses to speak of. Michigan has only allowed 20 or more points twice this season, against Maryland and against Ohio State.

Purdue Boilermakers

Purdue was a hefty longshot at the beginning of the year to win the conference championship. The Big Ten Championship odds had the Boilermakers at +3000 to win the title. So Purdue has exceeded expectations just by getting to the championship game. Purdue is a good team, sitting just outside the NCAAF rankings top 25. The Boilermakers received 24 votes, which would place them at No. 30.

Purdue quarterback Aidan O’Connell is missing practice time this week due to the death of his brother. But he is expected to be ready for Saturday’s game. The Boilermakers are likely to throw the ball often due to an average running game and Michigan’s strength against the run. Purdue ran for 127.3 yards per game and threw for 279.9, so there’s little doubt where the team’s strength is. The Boilermakers averaged 28.6 points per game against teams that allowed 24.8, so they’re a little better than average.

Purdue is pretty much an average defense, allowing 23.1 points to teams that averaged 23.4

Defensively, Purdue is pretty much an average defense, allowing 23.1 points to teams that averaged 23.4. The Boilermakers can be prone to allow the big pass play. The Boilermakers allow just 55.6% completions but give up 7.3 yards per pass attempt. Purdue allows fewer completions than most teams but more yards when a pass is completed. That could make for a long night against Michigan’s passing attack.
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