Tennessee Looks To Beat Missouri For the Fifth Time in a Row
Second place in the SEC East Division will be on the line when Tennessee hits the road to meet up with Missouri. The Tennessee vs Missouri lines have the visiting Volunteers listed as the slight favorite.
Tennessee has won the last four meetings against Missouri and covered in each of those matchups. Missouri is 1-1 against the spread in the two NCAAF games when listed as the underdog at home with Tennessee splitting its two games ATS as the road favorite. Missouri is 5-1 at home with both of Tennessee’s losses coming on the road.
Running back Jabari Smith (415 rushing yards) is questionable for Tennessee. Running back DeSean Bishop, defensive back Kamal Hadden (19 tackles, three interceptions, eight pass breakups) and receiver Bru McCoy (17 catches in five games) are out.
For Missouri, linebacker Chad Bailey (17 tackles), receivers Luther Burden and Demariyon Houston are questionable while defensive back Shamar McNeil is out.
Tennessee moved up four spots to No. 13 in the College Football Playoff rankings with Missouri dropping from 12th to 14th. The Volunteers are 12th in the American Football Coaches Association poll and 14th in the Associated Press poll with Missouri 15th and 16th in the two national rankings.
Missouri and Tennessee are priced at +50000 in the odds to win the college football championship.Tennessee was priced at +3000 in the championship odds coming into the season with Missouri’s odds opened at +30000.
Date/Time: Saturday, Nov. 11, 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: Memorial Stadium/Faurot Field, Columbia, MO TV & Live
Line: Tennessee -1.5 | Total: 58.5
Hitting the Ground Running
It doesn’t take much number crunching to figure out the best way to beat Tennessee this college football season. In the seven wins by the Volunteers, Tennessee is averaging nearly 260 rushing yards per game on 41 rushing attempts. In the losses to Florida and Alabama, the Volunteers have been held to 233 yards on 68 carries. Tennessee ran for 264 yards and five touchdowns in last year’s win over Missouri.
After recording two 100-yard games in his first two seasons, Jaylen Wright has gone over 100 yards in six of the seven Tennessee wins. Keep that in mind when it comes to the Tennessee vs Missouri lines. He ran 11 times for 51 yards and two touchdowns in last year’s game against Missouri. He leads the SEC with 30 runs of at least 10 yards and that is 10 more than he had all of last season.
The total has gone over in four of Tennessee’s last five games.
Tigers Finishing Strong
Tennessee might want to have control of the game before the start of the fourth quarter. Missouri has outscored Kentucky, South Carolina and Georgia 36-9 in the fourth quarter over the last three games.
During the season, the Tigers rank in the top 10 nationally in points scored in the fourth quarter. That could factor into the Tennessee vs Missouri lines.
That trend began in the third game of the season when Missouri overcame a seven-point deficit to stun Kansas State on a 61-yard field goal by Harrison Mevis on the final play of the game.
The total has gone over in five of the last seven games played by Missouri.
Missouri only trailed Tennessee by four points in the third quarter when the division rivals met in 2022 before the Volunteers scored the final 38 points in a 66-24 victory as a 19-point favorite.
The game went over the 57.5-point total on Jalin Hyatt’s touchdown catch with 8:30 left to play in the third quarter. It was almost an identical score with Tennessee winning 62-24 in 2021 when the teams last met in Missouri.
Tennessee vs Missouri Betting Preview
Don’t expect another 30-point margin of victory when the teams meet this weekend.
Missouri will look to start fast against a Tennessee team that is ninth nationally in points scored in the first quarter of games.
Keep an eye on updates about Burden’s availability as the Missouri offense would look much different with the player who is second in the SEC with 64 catches and third with 958 receiving yards. He will be somebody showing up in the parlay odds calculator.
Tennessee has covered in four of its last five games as well as in four of its previous five matchups against Missouri.
Missouri has covered in six of the last seven games so one of those trends will be coming to an end.
Five of the last seven meetings between the Volunteers and Tigers went over the total and the 58.5-point total in this matchup is rather attainable. It is the second-highest total among the Week 11 games in Week 11.
A key in the game could be how many drives that reach the red zone finish with field goals instead of touchdowns. Missouri has come away with points in 37 of its 38 red-zone drives but 12 of those drives resulted in field goals. Tennessee has kicked field goals in 14 of 41 drives that reached the red zone.
With temperatures expected to be in the low 50s with mostly sunny conditions, don’t expect weather to have a role in Saturday’s outcome.
The Tigers have been a surprise team in the SEC, but when making college football picks, it is hard to go against visiting Tennessee even if the Volunteers haven’t played well on the road this season.