Fenway Bowl – SMU vs Boston College Free Picks

Motivation is going to be the critical factor when SMU faces Boston College in the Fenway Bowl. After going 10-2 and then winning the AAC championship game, the Mustangs had to be hoping for better than this. Instead, they’ll get a Boston College team that should have a definite crowd advantage.

The Mustangs opened as 9.5-point favorites, and the line quickly moved to SMU -11, which is where it is holding. The Mustangs are -410 on the moneyline after opening -360. The total on the game is down a couple of points. After opening at 53.5, the total is now at 51. The SMU vs Boston College free picks article will look at the side and total.

Mustangs to Start Backup QB

Kevin Jennings will get his second start for SMU after starting QB Preston Stone was injured against Navy. Jennings was fair in the AAC title game and led the team to the win. For the season, the Mustangs scored 40.6 points per game against teams that allowed 31.3 points.

So SMU is pretty good offensively, just not quite as good as it looks at a glance. The Mustangs ran for 183.1 yards per game and threw for 285, although most of that was with Stone at quarterback.

SMU isn’t one-dimensional and plays tough defense. The Mustangs allowed 17.4 points to teams who averaged 25.3 points. SMU held opponents to 3.2 yards per rush and 6.0 yards per pass attempt. The Mustangs allowed just 4.4 yards per play, which puts them tied for fifth best in the nation. SMU seven opponents to 14 points or less.

The Mustangs were 8-5 against the NCAA betting lines and 6-7 in totals this season.

Eagles Falter Down Stretch

After starting the season 6-3, Boston College lost its last three games of the season to finish 6-6. The Fenway Bowl is probably as good as it gets for the Eagles. The team wasn’t going to get to a bigger bowl game, so they might as well play in front of the home fans. The Eagles were just 4-8 against the NCAAF odds during the season and 8-3-1 in totals.

The Boston College offense isn’t bad. The Eagles averaged 25 points per game against teams, allowing 24.4 points. Boston College likes to run the ball, averaging 42 rushes per game for 191.5 yards. The Eagles throw 28.6 times per game and gain 6.7 yards per attempt. Boston College averaged over 31 minutes of time of possession per game.

The Eagles aren’t that good defensively, allowing 29.5 points per game to NCAAF teams averaging 26.2 points. The Eagles don’t really stop the run or the pass very well. Boston College allows 5.4 yards per rush to teams who average 4.7 yards per carry.

The Eagles see an average of 36 running plays and 24 passes per game. Teams averaged 193.7 yards on the ground against Boston College, so there wasn’t a huge need to throw the football. But when teams did throw, they averaged 8.2 yards per pass attempt.

Can Eagles Keep it Close For Home Fans?

This will be SMU’s final game as a member of the AAC, as the Mustangs will join Boston College in the ACC next season. The Mustangs had to be hoping for a better send-off.

If all things were equal, SMU shouldn’t have any problem handling the Eagles. But all things aren’t equal here. You have a team that probably has little interest in being here playing a team that is pleased to be playing in Fenway Park. The Eagles certainly have the motivational edge, along with the strength of college football schedule advantage.

The SMU vs Boston College free picks on the side will be Boston College +11. The Eagles might be a shade better than people think, especially going up against a backup quarterback in Jennings. Boston College’s running game can shorten the game, which is what the Eagles want to do against a superior team. Strength of schedule numbers have SMU by 9.5 points.

The Mustangs are most likely going to win the game, as we’re just hoping Boston College stays within the spread, so the Eagles aren’t an easy take on the moneyline. But, the betting odds calculator believes Boston College +325 is worth a small stab in case SMU really comes out and just goes through the motions.

The SMU vs Boston College free picks on the total is going to be on the under 51. The Eagles will be running the ball, and the Mustangs may keep it on the ground a bit more with Jennings playing quarterback.

For NCAAF betting news, NCAA football game, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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