Camellia Bowl – Northern Illinois vs Arkansas State Free Picks
Arkansas State vs Northern Illinois Free Picks: Close to Pick 'Em
The Camellia Bowl (Dec. 23) may not be a hit for TV ratings, but with Arkansas State and Northern Illinois both 6-6, it’s shaping up to be one of the more competitive matchups of the college bowl season.
Oddsmakers feel similarly. Northern Illinois is now a 1-point favorite after opening as 1.5-point underdogs. The Huskies are also -112 on the moneyline, with Arkansas State priced at -108. Meanwhile, the Over/Under is 53.5, up from the opening total of 51.5.
What side has the edge? Read on as we break down both teams and give our Arkansas St vs N Illinois free picks.
Camellia Bowl
Red Wolves vs Huskies 
Day/Time:
Location: Cramton Bowl; Montgomery, Ala.
Streaming: ESPN, ESPN+
Red Wolves Trending in Right Direction
Arkansas State salvaged its season after a woeful start, getting back to a college bowl for the first time since 2019. The Red Wolves, who were outscored 110-3 in their first two games, find themselves at 6-6.
The Red Wolves have some noticeable flaws. For one, they allowed 445.5 yards and 31.1 points per game. But they do deserve credit for keeping things from snowballing early. The Red Wolves went 4-4 in Sun Belt Conference play, including a 77-31 rout of Texas State to become bowl-eligible.
Arkansas State has been profitable against the spread of late, covering in four of its last five games. That includes a 4-0 mark ATS as an underdog, according to college football odds.
Fortunately for Arkansas State, it shouldn’t be affected by too many opt-outs for the bowl. Linebacker Javante Mackey, who finished second on the team with 82 tackles, is one of the lone holdouts after deciding to enter the NCAA transfer portal with three NCAAF seasons of eligibility remaining.
Bettors should also monitor the statuses of running back Zak Wallace and center Jacob Bayer, both of whom missed the regular-season finale against Marshall with injuries. It’s important to remember that when assessing our Arkansas St vs N Illinois free picks.
Better Late than Never for NIU
Like Arkansas State, Northern Illinois overcame a rocky start to return to the postseason. The Huskies have won five of their last seven NCAAF games after opening 1-5.
Northern Illinois’ defense played a significant role in that turnaround. The Huskies rank sixth in the country in pass defense (163.9 yards allowed per game) and are tied for 28th in scoring (21.1 PPG), per college football scores. Fortunately, that unit should be largely intact for the bowl, with the exception of backup safeties Devin Lafayette and CJ Brown. Both NCAAF players intend to transfer.
There’s far less certainty on offense. Receiver Trayvon Rudolph, who’s also the team’s best returner, and Trey Urwiler are also in the transfer portal, meaning the Huskies could be extremely thin in the passing game.
Notably, Northern Illinois covered just once over its final five games and was just 5-7 ATS overall. Remember that when analyzing our Arkansas St vs N Illinois free picks.
Pick ‘Em on Tap
This is shaping up to be one of the more competitive bowls of the season, with both college football teams fashioning records of 6-6. Each took similar paths to get there, improving down the stretch after a dismal first month. As such, this is shaping up to be a pick ’em.
Considering all that, we’re giving the slight edge to Northern Illinois. The Huskies, 1-point favorites and -112 on the moneyline, are much better defensively and come from a much stronger conference in the Mid-American.
Because of their defense, we’re also leaning toward the Under of 53.5. Despite Arkansas State’s deficiencies, that total seems a tad high.
For NCAA football bowl projections, betting odds, analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
