Guaranteed Rate Bowl – Kansas vs UNLV Free Picks

UNLV is having its best football season since 1984, but that hasn’t stopped bettors from taking Kansas. The Guaranteed Rate Bowl point spread has moved from Kansas -11.5 to -12.5. The spread moved early and been holding steady at Kansas -12.5. The moneyline is showing Kansas -450. The total has shown little movement and is at the opening number of 64.5. The Kansas vs UNLV free picks will look at the side and the total.

Guaranteed Rate Bowl

Kansas Comes to Play

The Jayhawks really had just one bad game all season. That was a 40-14 loss to the Texas Longhorns. But Kansas was in the other three losses, which were all by a touchdown or less to the likes of Oklahoma State and Kansas State and Texas Tech; three bowl teams.

The key to Kansas’ success was its offense, particularly the running game. The Jayhawks rushed for 5.5 yards per carry and did a great job overcoming the loss of quarterback Jalon Daniels. Jason Bean stepped in and got the job done, throwing for 12 TDs and four interceptions. He added 259 yards and three TDs on the ground.

The Kansas defense wasn’t great, but held its own for the most part in the Big 12 Conference. The Jayhawks allowed 25.8 points per game, although its opponents averaged 28.2 points.

Kansas allowed 4.6 yards per rush and 7.3 yards per pass attempt. The Jayhawks defensive numbers were just slightly better than what their opponents averaged during the season. Although in the Big 12 Conference, that isn’t all that bad.

Runnin’ Rebels Heading the Wrong Way

UNLV isn’t coming into this game on a high note. The Rebels have lost their last two games, both straight-up and against the NCAAF odds.

The defense has been the primary culprit, allowing 37 points to San Jose State and 44 points to Boise State. But it’s been the defense that has been the team’s wink link UNLV allowed 27 points per game to teams that averaged 25.7 points.

As an underdog, the Rebels allowed 34.8 points per game. UNLV is decent against the run, allowing 4.4 yards to teams that average 4.4 yards per rush. But the passing defense leaves quite a bit to be desired. The UNLV Rebels allow 8.4 yards per pass attempt against teams that average 7.4 yards per pass.

Offensively, UNLV is just fine, averaging 35.3 points against NCAAF teams that allow an average of 28.1 points. Leading the charge is freshman quarterback Jayden Maiava. He’s been rumored to enter the transfer portal. But so far there is nothing definite on that front.

Maiava threw for 2,794 yards and had 14 touchdown passes during the season. He added 261 yards and three TDs on the ground. The Rebels average 181.1 yards on the ground and 235.1 through the air.

Jayhawks Hold Massive Strength of Schedule Edge

Kansas played Jeff Sagarin’s No. 21-ranked schedule UNLV played his 98th toughest schedule. That’s one of the biggest differences on this year’s college bowl schedule. It’s one thing to average 4.6 yards per rush against Hawaii and New Mexico. It’s something else to average 5.5 yards per rush against Oklahoma and Kansas State.

But the point spread is the great equalizer in the college bowl games. Double-digit college bowl favorites are 146-170-5 dating back to 1980. Still, it’s hard to imagine UNLV being able to hang around with Kansas. The Jayhawks will be the second-best team UNLV has faced all season. The Rebels are about the 10th toughest team Kansas has played.

The Kansas vs UNLV free picks on the point spread is going to be Kansas -12.5. You’re never a big fan of laying that kind of number in the bowl games, but the Jayhawks are a much-better team all the way around.

Kansas’ running game is going to cause problems for the Rebels. If UNLV pays too much attention to the run, Bean is a good enough passer to pick apart the Rebel secondary.

Laying -450 on the moneyline isn’t ideal, but it’s pretty much the only way to go on this NCAAF game. You may want to add it to one of your college football parlays due to the price. But it’s Kansas or nothing here.

The Kansas vs UNLV free picks on the total will be the over 64.5. UNLV is a better offensive team than defensive team. The Rebels should be able to put some points on the NCAAF scoreboard. But the Jayhawks should put up plenty more.

For NCAAF betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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