Holiday Bowl Betting Odds: Oregon vs North Carolina

Both the Oregon Ducks and UNC Tar Heels will be without some players when they meet in the Holiday Bowl. But the Tar Heels may feel their losses a bit more. That’s a big reason why the line has moved so much in this game. This game has to be considered a disappointment for both teams, so effort and motivation will be a key.

Game Information

Ducks Draw Sharp Action When Line Released

The Holiday Bowl betting odds opened with Oregon at -9.5 and the spread moved to -13 before sportsbooks knew what hit them. The Tar Heels are going to be without three of their starting defensive backs in Tony Grimes, Cam’Ron Kelly and Storm Duck. The line is now Oregon -14.5. That may be giving a little too much credit to the Tar Heel secondary, which wasn’t very good to begin with. It’s not as though the second-string football players can be that much worse than the starters.

The Holiday Bowl betting odds have seen the total remain pretty steady at 71.5. The number is lofty but appears to be warranted. Both teams can score, with UNC averaging 35 points a game and Oregon scoring 39.7.

If you want to back the Ducks on the moneyline be prepared to dig deep in your wallet. The Holiday Bowl betting odds on the moneyline are now Oregon -550. That’s a steep price to lay regardless of how much better the Ducks appear to be. Both teams are 0-3 straight-up in bowl games the last three years.

Oregon Ducks

The Ducks rebounded nicely from their opening-game debacle against Georgia that saw the Bulldogs win 49-3. Oregon ran off eight straight wins, going 7-1 ATS in that span, before being upset by Washington. The Ducks looked to have cemented a date in the Pac-12 Championship Game against Oregon State before disaster hit. Leading 31-10 with five minutes to go in the third quarter, the Ducks were outscored 28-3 the rest of the way. That’s why Oregon is here and not playing in a bigger bowl.

Oregon was 5-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite this season and the Oregon vs North Carolina odds are playing in the Ducks’ wheelhouse. The Ducks can roll up the scores against outmatched foes and the Sagarin college football rankings have Oregon 14.14 points better.

Oregon quarterback Bo Nix said he’s going to play in the game. Looking at the North Carolina defensive stats, you can’t blame him. The Tar Heels are horrible defending the pass and Nix should have a banner day. The frequent whipping boy at Auburn, Nix had a huge season for the Ducks, throwing for 3,389 yards and 27 TDs against six interceptions. He added 504 yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground and was sacked just four times in 379 pass attempts.

The Ducks have a couple of decent running backs in Bucky Irving and Noah Whittington, who combined for 1,660 yards and eight scores. Oregon had six players with at least 300 receiving yards and five of them should be good to go here.

Oregon’s defense isn’t quite as bad as advertised, although it disappeared when it was needed against Oregon State. The Ducks did allow 27.4 points per game but their foes averaged 29.9 points. The Ducks were a little better defending the run than the pass.

North Carolina Tar Heels

The Tar Heels were thinking major bowl just a month ago but three straight losses to end the season leave them packing their bags for San Diego. Two of those losses came as favorites, including an inexplicable loss to Georgia Tech as 21-point favorites. An ugly showing against Clemson in the ACC title game didn’t impress many bowl committees.

The Tar Heels have a solid two-way threat at quarterback of their own in Drake Maye, who threw for 35 TDs and led the team with 653 yards rushing. He was sacked 38 times which took a toll on his rushing yards but he can move. Fortunately for him, the Ducks recorded just 16 sacks on the NCAAF season. Maye’s favorite receiver, Josh Downs, has declared for the NFL draft and will sit this one out. He had 94 receptions and 11 TDs so it’s a big loss.

The Tar Heels are 50-50 in terms of passing attempts and rushes, although a number of those rushes are from Maye on passing plays. His 172 rushing attempts were tops on the team. Still, UNC needs to get some production from its running backs to keep this one close.

Defensively, the Tar Heels were not very good, especially defending the pass. The Tar Heels allowed 65% completions to teams that completed 61.3% of their passes on the season. UNC allowed an average of 7.9 per pass play to college football teams that averaged 7.2 on the season. Those aren’t the type of numbers you want to see against an Oregon team that completed 70.7% of its passes and gained 8.7 yards per passing attempt.

Can Tar Heels Keep Up Offensively?

The Holiday Bowl betting odds suggest there are going to be plenty of points on the scoreboard in this one. The question is how many of them will belong to North Carolina? The game is a match-up nightmare for the Tar Heels and their pass defense.

The Ducks should be able to break 40 points in this one. North Carolina can score themselves but could be overwhelmed here.

Many sharp bettors were on the Ducks early on. But now that the Holiday Bowl betting odds have moved past two touchdowns, a lot of the betting value on the Ducks is gone. And the Tar Heels do posses backdoor potential.
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