New Orleans Bowl Betting Odds: South Alabama vs Western Kentucky

The New Orleans Bowl betting odds have made a huge move on news that Western Kentucky quarterback Austin Reed has entered the transfer portal. South Alabama is now favored by more than a TD after the game opened close to even. The Hilltoppers still have some talent. But the offense has taken a huge hit, with backup quarterback Darius Ocean also entering the transfer portal.

Game Information

Big Line Moves in Spread and Total

The New Orleans Bowl betting odds have seen a change in favorites now that Western Kentucky will be without one of the best quarterbacks in the nation, Austin Reed. South Alabama has gone from 1-point underdogs to 8-point favorites. Nine points may be pushing it in terms of a quarterback’s worth, but Reed could be worth it. Western Kentucky backups threw 16 passes this season and Ocean had 12 of those.

The New Orleans Bowl betting odds also saw a significant drop in the total, which opened at 60 and is down to 54.5. Western Kentucky was just 5-8 in totals with Reed. South Alabama was 7-4-1.

As expected, the moneyline also made a significant change, with the New Orleans Bowl betting odds showing the Jaguars at -300 in the game. That’s a steep price but definitely warranted in this situation.

South Alabama Jaguars

South Alabama is a fairly solid football team for the Sun Belt Conference, which isn’t known for its football ability. The Jaguars were 10-2 overall and 7-1 in the Sun Belt, losing only to bowl-bound Troy. The Jaguars are in a familiar role as favorites, with the Jaguars being favored in 10 of their 12 games this season.

Offensively, South Alabama scored 31.9 points per game against teams that allowed 29.2 points on average. The Jaguars run the ball 39.4 times per game and throw the ball 32.8. While South Alabama likes to run they do most of their damage through the air, scoring 25 times on TD passes compared to 19 touchdowns on the ground.

Carter Bradley doesn’t have the stats that Reed has posted, but he’s a solid quarterback, throwing for 2,976 yards and 25 TDs on the season. The Jaguars had three receivers with more than 50 catches, so defenses can’t key on any one player, although Jalen Wayne had nine of the trios 19 TD receptions on the season.

The South Alabama defense was solid all season, allowing 19.4 points, holding teams to 5.5 fewer points than they averaged. The Jaguars were strong against the run, allowing just 3.1 yards per carry, but they can defend the pass pretty well. South Alabama holds teams to 6.2 yards per pass attempt and 4.8 yards per play.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

Western Kentucky is a completely different team without Reed. The Hilltoppers did have some success on the ground this year, rushing for 4.9 yards per carry, but how much of that was due to teams respecting the pass? Western Kentucky runs the ball 29.8 times per game and throws 43.5, so it’s no secret what the Hilltoppers want to do.

Third-string QB Caden Veltkamp threw four passes all season and those came in the team’s 73-0 win against Florida International.

You can’t blame Western Kentucky for throwing as often as it does. Reed threw for 4,247 yards and 36 touchdowns this season. The Hilltoppers may have been guilty of letting him pad his stats at times and that could come back to haunt them here. Third-string QB Caden Veltkamp threw four passes all season and those came in the team’s 73-0 win against Florida International. The true freshman could very well get the start, as he is listed as No. 3 on the team’s QB depth chart.

Western Kentucky ran for 15 touchdowns during the season, but Reed scored eight of those. No running back ran for more than 500 yards on the season, with Kye Robichaux and Davion Ervin-Poindexter receiving the bulk of carries from the backfield.

Defensively, Western Kentucky wasn’t bad, allowing 23.5 points to teams that averaged 26 points. The Hilltoppers were better than average against the run and the pass and allowed just 5.3 yards per play. The defense was on the field more than 31 minutes a game on average and could wear down a little in the second half. That was most notable on the road, where the Hilltoppers allowed 10.1 points in the first half and 15.1 points in the second half.

Can Hilltoppers Move the Ball?

When this game was first made, organizers of the R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl had to be pretty excited. It features two closely matched teams – the Sagarin college football rankings have them separated by less than a point – and they’re both exciting to watch. That’s all changed and now the question is can Western Kentucky mount enough offense to keep this one close?

If Western Kentucky plays on the conservative side, they’re going to have a tough time keeping pace with South Alabama. Since this game has no bearing on anything, the Hilltoppers might as well throw Veltkamp out there and see what he can do. The extra time he’ll have to work with the first unit in practice should help.

The New Orleans Bowl betting odds of South Alabama -8 is a pretty good number by the sportsbooks. But a bet on Western Kentucky is pretty much a bet on Veltkamp and how he fares in his first college football start. He had at least seven offers coming out of high school – including the Kentucky Wildcats – so he has talent. If he plays well, this will be a great game to watch. If he doesn’t, the game could get a bit on the ugly side.

Can’t get enough? Here’s more!

• Group of Five Football Betting Odds: Huge Tests on Tap for Tulane Green Wave and Toledo Rockets
• College Football: Expected Totals for NCAA Football SEC Wins
• College Football Big Ten Teams: “Expected to Win” Totals in the West
• NCAAF Team Stats
• Big 12 Week 8 Betting Odds: Undefeated TCU Faces Another Huge Test