Illinois vs Purdue Preview: Walters Faces Old Team in Virtual Pick ‘Em

Purdue head coach Ryan Walters will face his former team for the first time when the Boilermakers host the Illinois Fighting Illini on Saturday.

Oddsmakers are a bit conflicted over who to pick, as both the Boilermakers (-112) and Fighting Illini (-108) are now even money. This after Purdue opened as a 1.5-point favorite. Meanwhile, the projected total is 52.5 (-110 Over, -110 Under).

What team has the edge? Read on as we break down the NCAAF matchup in our Illinois vs Purdue preview.

Betting Trends

The Illinois Fighting Illini have lost all four games against the spread and are 0-5 dating to last NCAAF season. The total has gone Under in four of their last five games. Meanwhile, the Purdue Boilermakers are 1-3 ATS and are 1-5 over their last six games. The total has gone Under in five of the last six meetings between these NCAAF teams. That’s important to remember when assessing the odds in our Illinois vs Purdue preview.

Fighting Illini Scuffling on D

The Illinois Fighting Illini was largely unimpressive last Saturday against Florida Atlantic, beating the Owls 23-17 at home as a 16-point favorite. The Fighting Illini dropped to 0-4 ATS but improved to 2-2 overall. Now comes the meat of Big Ten play.

The biggest concern for Illinois has been its defense. After leading the NCAAF rankings last year in scoring defense (12.3 points allowed per game), the Fighting Illini have struggled to recapture their form. Now, some regression was expected. The Fighting Illini did, after all, lose Walters, not to mention a trio of draft picks, including defensive back Devon Witherspoon (selected No. 5 by Seattle). Still, there’s enough talent left over for Illinois to be more competitive than it’s been.

The Fighting Illini have allowed 109 points through four games, including 30 or more twice. That’s despite having another likely first rounder on the roster in defensive tackle Jer’Zhan Newton. Keep that in mind when analyzing the odds in our Illinois vs Purdue preview.

Notably, amid its start, the Fighting Illini have seen their odds of winning the Big Ten plummet from +2000 to +5000 according to college football betting lines.

Rocky Beginnings for Purdue

Walters is off to a 1-3 start at Purdue after falling 38-17 to Wisconsin last Friday. The Boilermakers, 6-point underdogs, fell behind 21-3 at halftime and finished with three turnovers, including two interceptions by quarterback Hudson Card.

As is the case with Illinois, defense remains an issue. Three of the Boilermakers‘ first four opponents have scored at least 35 points. The Boilermakers are allowing an average of 255.8 yards. It’s obviously a concern, but one that should be rectified once Walters settles in and begins bringing aboard more of his own recruits.

The Boilermakers entered this season as a longshot to win the Big Ten, and they remain as such. Their +15000 odds to win the conference championship are the fourth longest on the board behind Michigan State (+20000), Indiana (+50000) and Northwestern (+50000).

Walters, 37, certainly deserves the benefit of the doubt. The architect of Illinois’ standout 2022 defense, Walters was named a finalist for the Broyles Award, which is given to the nation’s top assistant.

Handicapping the Game

After scuffling out of the gates, Illinois sure could use a get-right opportunity. In many ways, this feels like one. While they have many issues of their own, they’re deeper and more talented than Purdue. If Ole Miss transfer Luke Altmyer can protect the ball — he’s been intercepted seven times in his first 118 attempts — Illinois should have no trouble asserting itself in a game that’s a virtual pick ’em.

For NCAAF news, betting odds, analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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