Florida vs Kentucky Preview: Wildcats Favored Over Florida, Third Consecutive Game

The Florida Gators Felt Right At Home As Road Underdogs A Season Ago

The last time that Kentucky won three games in a row against SEC rival Florida came when the Wildcats had a four-game winning streak versus the Gators from 1948-51. When looking at the Florida vs Kentucky preview, host Kentucky is listed as the 2.5-point favorite.

Kentucky is tied for the SEC lead with a 3-1 record against the spread with Florida failing to cover in three of the first four games.

The Wildcats were second only to Tennessee among SEC teams with an 8-5 record against the college football odds during the 2022 season. However, they were just 3-3 as a home favorite with Florida winning all three games when listed as the road underdog.

A quick look at the college football schedule this weekend shows that Kentucky is one of two home teams from the SEC favored this season.

When looking at the NCAAF rankings, Florida went from 25th to 22nd in the Associated Press poll and moved into the coaches’ poll at No. 23. Kentucky is the second team in the other teams receiving votes in both polls.

Florida is priced at +20000 and Kentucky comes in at +25000 in the college football championship odds.

Gators Have Plenty of Bite

After finishing 12th in the SEC in total defense a season ago, it is a different story in the early stages of the 2023 season.

Florida has allowed the fewest yards per game in the SEC.

The Gators have gone from surrendering 411 yards and 5.9 yards per play during the 2022 season to 245 yards and 4.7 yards per game so far this year. Keep that in mind when it comes to the Florida vs Kentucky preview.

Perhaps the most impressive part of the improvement is that nine of the top 14 tacklers are either freshmen or sophomores as Florida lost its top five tacklers off the 2022 squad.

The total went under in four of Florida’s last five games.

Slow Start for Leary

Devin Leary was expected to be one of the transfers to make the biggest impact after he went from North Carolina State to Kentucky.

Leary still has some work to do as he is 10th in the SEC in passing efficiency and among SEC starting quarterbacks, only Vanderbilt’s AJ Swann has a lower completion percentage. That could factor into the Florida vs Kentucky preview.

Leary has thrown at least one interception in each of his first four games with the Wildcats. His five interceptions are the second most in the SEC. The good news is that Florida has just one interception in the first four games of the season.

The total has gone under in seven of Kentucky’s last eight home games.

Last Meeting

Kentucky, which hasn’t been favored against Florida in more than 20 years, not only held Florida scoreless in the second half but took the lead on an interception return for a touchdown and added a field goal for the 26-16 win to beat the Gators in Gainesville for the second time in the last three trips to Florida.

It was the third straight game in the series to finish under the total.

Florida failed to cover against Kentucky for the sixth straight season.

What to Expect

Florida wasn’t tested by Charlotte in its first game since the upset of Tennessee. Kentucky is 4-0 for the second straight season. In 2022, the Wildcats lost six of their final nine games. It’s hard to get much of a read about this Kentucky team after wins over Ball State, Eastern Kentucky, Akron and Vanderbilt.

Florida failed to cover in its only road game this season while Kentucky 2-1 against the spread at home. Kentucky was 5-3 against the college football odds at home in 2022 with Florida 3-1 against the spread on the road.

The total is set at 46 points and it would mark just the second time in the last six meetings that the total is under 50 points. One reason for this total is that the Gators and Wildcats have allowed 37 plays from scrimmage of at least 10 yards, the lowest among SEC teams.

Florida is 1-4 against the NCAA football odds in its last five games with Kentucky 5-2 ATS in its last seven contests.

The teams are a combined 2 for 9 on fourth downs so far this season.

Receivers Marcus Burke and Thai Chiaokhiao-Bowman, offensive lineman Kingsley Eguakum and safety Ja’Markis Weston are questionable for Florida.

For Kentucky, running backs Jamarion Wilcox and Le’Vell Wright and tight end Josh Kattus are questionable.

This is a chance for Kentucky to prove it is for real but it is hard to go against Florida in this matchup.

For NCAAF betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

Want more articles like this? Check these out:

• Baylor vs Central Florida Odds: Knights Seek Rebound After First Loss
• Clemson vs Syracuse Preview: Can Clemson Respond After Tough Loss to FSU?
• South Alabama vs James Madison Betting Odds: Dukes Given Slight Edge at Home
• Penn State vs Northwestern Odds: Spread Growing in Nittany Lions’ Favor
• Pac 12 Showdown: (10) Utah Utes vs (19) Oregon State Beavers Odds Preview