Baylor vs Central Florida Odds: Knights Seek Rebound After First Loss

Bears Struggle Out of the Gate

September 26, 2023 239 3 minutes readNCAAF Picks & Parlays

Baylor vs Central Florida Odds: Knights Seek Rebound After First Loss — Tim Warner/Getty Images/AFP

Baylor Playing Worse Than Expected
Knights Roughed Up by Kansas State's Offense
What to Expect
Who to Bet On?

The Baylor Bears visit the UCF Knights on Saturday in a Big 12 Conference game. Baylor is off to a slow start, dropping three of its first four games. The Bears are just 0-3-1 against the spread in the early going of the NCAAF season and have gone 1-3 in totals. Central Florida is coming off its first loss of the season and is 3-1 straight-up and 2-2 against the spread. The Knights are 3-1 in totals. The Baylor vs Central Florida odds have the Knights as 12-point favorites and the total on the game is 55.

Baylor Bears at Central Florida Knights

Day/Time: Saturday, Sept. 30, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line: Central Florida -12
Total: 55
Streaming: FS1

Baylor Playing Worse Than Expected

The Baylor Bears weren’t expected to compete for the Big 12 Conference title. But they weren’t supposed to be 1-3 at this point of the season, either. The Bears opened the season with a 42-31 loss to Texas State, with the college football betting odds having Baylor as 27-point favorites.

The Bears pushed against Utah, losing 20-13 as 7-point underdogs. Baylor hasn’t come close to covering the point spread its last two games, defeating Long Island 30-7 as 46-point favorites and falling to Texas 38-6 as 17-point underdogs. Now, the Bears take to the road for the first time this season.

Baylor’s running game has been dismal, gaining 96.3 yards and 3.1 yards per carry against the three BCS schools. The Bears rushed for 270 yards against Long Island, but that’s nothing to be excited about. Baylor has three running backs with at least 125 yards, but nobody has jumped to the front of the pack.

Baylor quarterback Blake Shapen is injured and Sawyer Robertson started against Texas. He was average at best. While he was one of Baylor’s top-rated recruits coming out of high school, it’s time for him to show he can play at a high level in college football. He’s done that at times, but not consistently.

Against the three BCS teams, Baylor’s defense hasn’t been much. The Bears haven’t played well against the run and have been worse against the pass. Baylor’s secondary needs to play better and it would help if the line could put more pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

Knights Roughed Up by Kansas State’s Offense

The Knights have been on the right side of the NCAAF scoreboard three times in their first four games of the season. Last week was UCF’s first loss, falling to Kansas State 44-31 as 4-point underdogs. Kansas State gained 536 total yards and held the ball for 34:23. UCF couldn’t stop the run or the pass.

The Knights are averaging 263 yards on the ground, with Johnny Richardson and RJ Harvey each having more than 280 yards on the ground. Timmy McClain has played well in place of injured starter John Rhys Plumlee. He doesn’t have Plumlee’s running ability, but is a better passer. The NCAAF news out of Orlando Monday night said Plumlee is ahead of schedule on his rehab.

Defensively, UCF played well its first three games before running into the Wildcats’ buzzsaw last week. Part of that has to do with the likes of Villanova and Kent State on the schedule. But the Knights did do a decent job against Boise State.

What to Expect

The Bears haven’t run the ball well, although UCF’s rushing defense against Kansas State and Boise State wasn’t that impressive. The Bears might have a little success on the ground, but will need Robertson to make some plays through the air. Central Florida has been a little better against the pass than the run on the season.

The Knights will try to continue to mix it up offensively and put pressure on the Baylor defense. Nobody has really stopped UCF offensively this season. Baylor is going to have its work cut out.

Who to Bet On?

The Baylor vs Central Florida odds of Knights -12 is a tough call due to the quarterback situation for both teams. The two backups can play well. McClain has looked better than Plumlee and Robertson had several 300-yard passing games last season. He just needs more consistency.

The teams have padded their stats against some weak competition, while having some problems against the bigger schools on the schedule.

The Baylor vs Central Florida odds of 55 on the total could be promising from an over standpoint. It’s the defenses that have shown the biggest drop-off when playing the bigger schools and it’s unlikely both will bring their ‘A’ games on Saturday, so take the over 55 in this spot.

For NCAAF betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.