The Home Team Has Won The Last Eight Games Between the Bulldogs and Wildcats
There are few sure things in the world of college football. However, in the Kentucky-Mississippi State series, it pays to be the home team as the host squad has won the last eight NCAAF matchups. It is interesting that when looking at the Kentucky vs Mississippi State odds it is the visiting Wildcats who are favored.
Keep an eye on the status of Mississippi State quarterback Will Rogers considering that he has missed the last two games.
Kentucky has dropped three straight games after a 5-0 start as the opponents went 16-for-16 when it came to scoring on drives reaching the red zone.
Kentucky is listed by the college football spread as the three-point favorite.
Kentucky defensive back Jalen Geiger is questionable after missing the last two games with an elbow injury while offensive lineman Ben Christman is out for the season as a result of a knee injury.
As if the questions around Rogers aren’t enough to deal with, Mississippi State’s top rusher Jo’Quavious Marks missed the last game. Defensive linemen Kalvin Dinkins and Trevion Williams are both out.
When the season began, Kentucky was tied for 10th at +10000 in the odds to win the SEC title with Mississippi State (+12000) having the longest odds to win the SEC. Kentucky is three games behind Georgia in the SEC East standing with three conference games left with Mississippi State already eliminated in the SEC West race.
Date/Time: Saturday, Nov. 4, 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS
TV & Live Stream: SEC Network
Line: Kentucky -3 | Total: 46
A Chance to Breathe For The Wildcats
The good news is that the Wildcats are coming off a season-high 372 passing yards in the loss to Tennessee.
This will be the first time in more than a month that Kentucky is not facing a ranked team and the Wildcats face a Mississippi State team with the worst opposing pass rating in the SEC. Keep that in mind when looking at the Kentucky vs Mississippi State odds.
The total has gone over in each of Kentucky’s last five games.
Bulldogs Have Shown Little Bite
Mississippi State ranks outside the top 100 among Football Bowl Subdivision teams in both passing yards per game and rushing attempts per contest and that is not a winning formula.
A quick look at some recent ncaaf scores shows that the Bulldogs have been outscored 48-3 in the first quarter in its five SEC games and didn’t lead in the first quarter in any of those matchups. That could come into play when it comes to the Kentucky vs Mississippi State odds.
Four of Mississippi State’s last six games went over the total.
Kentucky, the 3.5-point underdog, used two Chris Rodriguez touchdown runs in the fourth quarter to top visiting Mississippi State 27-17.
After an interception on Mississippi State’s final possession, Kentucky had a chance to score the touchdown that would have sent the game over the 50.5-point total but the Wildcats ran out the clock with the ball inside the 10.
It was the fifth time in the last six meetings to land under the total.
Kentucky vs Mississippi State Betting Preview
Two mediocre offenses will be challenged by a pair of so-so defenses so this is not a threat to be considered for the SEC’s game of the week.
Mississippi State has covered fewer third downs than any other SEC team while Mississippi State and Kentucky rank 13th and 14th in the conference in the number of plays run this season.
Mississippi State has failed to cover in both of its games this NCAAF season as the home underdog with Kentucky covering in its only contest as the favorite on the road.
Kentucky has covered against the college football betting lines in five of its last seven road games. However, the Wildcats have dropped their last six road games against Mississippi State.
The total is set at 46 for this matchup and that is the lowest in this series since 2011.
With the injuries to the two best offensive players for Mississippi State, it is hard to trust the Bulldogs even if they haven’t lost to Kentucky at home since 2008.