There have been a handful of college football games that have seen significant line movement this week. A couple of the games involve teams in the NCAAF rankings, so it’s a mixture of smaller schools and big-name programs. The NCAAF Week 8 odds have seen at least four games move three points or more and those will be the games looked at here.
Line: Army -9.5
Streaming: CBS Sports Network
Army opened as 13.5-point favorites and the line is down to 9.5 with a total of 50.5. Both teams are coming off ‘payday’ games, although the Minutemen had a week off to lick some wounds. The last time UMass took the field was Oct. 14 at Penn State and the result was a predictable 63-0 Nittany Lion victory. Army didn’t fare much better last week at LSU, losing 62-0.
UMass brings a 1-7 straight-up record and 3-5 ATS record into the game. The Minutemen offense is decent, while the defense leaves a lot to be desired. UMass is scoring 22.9 points per game against teams allowing 22.7. But the defense allows 42.4 points to teams averaging 28.8 points per game.
After being shutout in back-to-back games, Army is averaging 21 points per game and allowing 26. For all the preseason hype about Army’s new offense, the Black Knights are running 47 times per game and throwing 16. It doesn’t sound like a whole lot has changed at Army.
The Black Knights are just the sixth team since 1999 to be favored in the college football betting lines after not scoring their last two college football games. The other five favorites lost outright. But with UMass allowing 6.2 yards per run… have to think the over 50.5 is the way to play this one.
Line: Georgia -14.5 (-105)
The annual Georgia vs Florida game is up on the NCAAF schedule. The game is played in Jacksonville, which favors the Gators, although it’s not a true home game for Florida. Georgia opened as 20.5-point favorites and the line has dropped all the way to 14.5 (since May – not this week). The Bulldogs’ 1-5-1 ATS record probably has something to do with that.
On paper, the Bulldogs should win, but will it be by enough? The betting public doesn’t think so, but Georgia is capable of turning it on at any time. The Bulldogs are averaging 40.1 points per game and allowing 14. The Gators are scoring 29.1 points and allowing 20. Neither team has played what can be considered a tough schedule to date. But that’s going to change quickly for both teams.
The total has climbed a little bit in this one, but the value in the game is on the over 48.5. Expect to see lots of pass attempts in this one and more points than expected.
Line: James Madison -21
James Madison makes a rare appearance in the AP rankings, checking in at No. 25. As a result, bettors have moved the line on the Dukes from -17 to JMU -21. Both NCAAF teams have covered the spread in their last five games. This one will be interesting as it pits team strength vs team strength. Old Dominion likes to run the ball, rushing 36.7 times per game and gaining 186 yards. But you don’t run against James Madison. The Dukes are allowing 36.1 yards per game and 1.2 yards per carry. JMU has held two teams to negative yardage. Needless to say, James Madison is No. 1 in rushing defense. Old Dominion is a little below average passing the ball, but that’s likely where they’re going to make plays.
James Madison has a decent offense, scoring 32.4 points per game. The passing offense is a little better than the rushing offense. That’s fine for the Dukes, as Old Dominion is pretty good against the run, but struggles with the pass. The NCAAF Week 8 odds on the total have climbed slightly, but perhaps not enough. Another game, another over, as the over 49 is the way to play this game.
Line: Oregon State -3
The Oregon State Beavers aren’t a very popular play for sports bettors this week. The NCAAF Week 8 odds have moved from OSU -6.5 to Beavers -3. Oregon State is coming off a big win against UCLA, although Arizona just thumped Washington State. Both teams are solid offensively and the defenses aren’t bad. Neither team has a weakness to speak of offensively and do a fair job of mixing passes and running plays.
The Beavers are 5-2 against the spread, while Arizona is 6-1 ATS on the season. The big difference between the two teams is in totals, where Oregon State is 5-2. But the Wildcats are just 1-6. You can see the rationale behind the line movement, but the Beavers are the better team and will go against the grain and take Oregon State -3.
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