Oklahoma vs Texas Free Picks: Sooners Look to Stay Perfect ATS

The famed Red River Rivalry returns Saturday (Noon ET) as No. 3 Texas takes on No. 12 Oklahoma at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas. In the most recent matchup in 2022, the Longhorns rolled 49-0 to post the largest margin of victory in the series. But with both NCAAF teams currently at 5-0, the next rendition is shaping up to be a lot more competitive.

After opening as a 3.5-point favorite, Texas is now up to -6.5 (-110). The Longhorns are also -245 on the moneyline, while Oklahoma is +6.5 (-110) on the spread and +203 to win outright. The projected total, meanwhile, has dropped steadily from 68.5 to 60.5 (-110 Over, -110 Under).

Who has the edge? Read on as we break down the matchup and deliver our Oklahoma vs Texas free picks.

Betting Trends

The Oklahoma Sooners have won their last six games against the spread, including five this season. However, they’re just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against Big 12 opponents. Also, the total has gone Over in five of the Sooners’ last seven games. The Texas Longhorns, meanwhile, are 3-2 ATS this NCAAF season and 5-1 over their last six conference games. The total has gone Under in five of the Longhorns’ last six contests. That’s important to remember when assessing our Oklahoma vs Texas free picks.

Buy, Buy, Buy the Longhorns

The third-ranked Texas Longhorns continued to bolster their resume Saturday, hammering No. 24 Kansas 40-14. The Longhorns, a 15.5-point favorite, outscored the Jayhawks 27-7 in the second half to cover the spread for the third time in five tries this season.

At 5-0, Texas certainly looks like a national title contender. And the NCAAF championship odds appear to back that up. The Longhorns are +750 to win it all, matching Ohio State for the third-best odds on the board. Only Georgia (+300) and Michigan (+400) are bigger favorites at the moment.

Much of what Texas does revolves around Quinn Ewers. The former five-star recruit arrived with big expectations after transferring from Ohio State, and he’s mostly lived up to them. In five games this season, Ewers has completed 66% of his passes for 1,358 yards and 10 touchdowns while also rushing for five scores. More importantly, he’s thrown just one interception. In the process, he’s established himself as a legitimate contender for the Heisman Trophy, with +900 odds.

Ewers was off to a strong start last year as well, his first with Texas, before injuring his shoulder. He had some strong performances after missing a month, but a trio of one-score losses ultimately sealed the Longhorns’ fate. So, it’s imperative that Texas (projected for 9.5 wins) doesn’t peak early.

Sooners Back to Form

After a mostly forgettable 2022, Brent Venables has the Oklahoma Sooners back on the map. The Sooners are 5-0 and ranked No. 12 in the AP Top 25 poll. They have an explosive offense, fueled by Dillon Gabriel, and an opportunistic defense. So much is going right.

But what’s the Sooners’ ceiling? Is it a Big 12 title? A College Football Playoff appearance? Or, even better, a national championship? For what it’s worth, Oklahoma is +2500 to win it all.At the very least, the Sooners are climbing back up the college football standings after an underwhelming 6-7 finish in Venables’ first season at the helm. It was their first time finishing under .500 since 1998, the year before Bob Stoops arrived.

Gabriel’s had a big hand in the turnaround, passing for 1,593 yards and 15 touchdowns compared to two interceptions. The UCF transfer has been remarkably efficient, with a 75.2% completion rate. It’s no wonder his Heisman odds have climbed to +1800.

Few have won with as much authority as the Sooners. Oklahoma ranks third in scoring offense (47.4 points per game) and tied for second in scoring defense (allowing 8.5 points per game). It’s coming off a 50-20 rout of Iowa State, in which Gabriel accounted for five touchdowns. The Sooners, 19.5-point favorites, scored 40 points in the first half and covered the spread for the fifth time in five tries this season. They are just one of four teams with a 5-0 record ATS, joining Oregon, Penn State and UNLV. Keep that in mind when analyzing our Oklahoma vs Texas free picks.

Handicapping the Game

Is Texas for real? Again, it sure looks that way. The Longhorns are 5-0 for the first time since 2009, the last time they won the Big 12. They have a bevy of playmakers, with a Heisman-contending quarterback to boot. But don’t overlook Oklahoma.

Although the Sooners trail this series 63-50-5, they are 16-8 against the Longhorns since 2000. It’s hard to overlook how dominant they’ve been this season. Gabriel is healthy, and Venables’ defense is playing to its potential.

Texas may win here, but 6.5 points is far too many. Look for the Sooners to cover.

For NCAAF betting news, odds, analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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