Pac-12 Preview: Arizona Wildcats vs (9) USC Trojans
The Wildcats have covered three of four games in 2023, Trojans just two of five overall
The Arizona Wildcats (3-2) travel to Los Angeles to take on the undefeated USC Trojans (5-0) on Saturday night with kick-off scheduled for 10:30 pm ET / 7:30 pm PT and can be seen on ESPN. The Wildcats’ defense must keep what many consider the best offense, off the field if they have any chance of staying close. USC averages 53.6 points per game, while the Arizona defense is a respectable 51st in the nation. The Trojans are a 22-point favorite with a total of 72. Let’s start our Arizona vs USC odds preview with a deeper dive into the Wilcats from a betting perspective.
Arizona vs USC 
Day/Time:
Streaming: ESPN
Wildcats Are Back In The Fire
This is the weekly ‘get-out’ game on our NCAAF scores and odds sheet, so we must get this one right. Arizona is coming off a loss but a cover (+20) against the Washington Huskies, who were in danger of losing but couldn’t pull away after building an 18-point lead at the 6:42 mark of the third quarter.
Bettors were sure their luck had run out, but the Cats responded with a 14-3 run to keep it close. Head Coach Jedd Fisch has some issues to contend with, starting with his quarterback Jayden de Laura, who was sidelined last week with an ankle injury. Back-up Noah Fifita played well in his absence (27-39-232 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT) but couldn’t get the ball downfield.
Fifita averaged 5.9 yards per attempt, with only one completion going more than 20 yards. That provides a massive problem against USC, who will demand that their opponents match them score for score. On the back of their 3-1 ATS mark this year (FBS teams), Arizona is 14-12 ATS since 2021, but just 18-24-1 ATS since 2019 (-7.34 units). We continue our Arizona vs USC odds preview by switching our attention to the Trojans.
USC Still With Defensive Question Marks
The NCAA Football schedule has been kind to Lincoln Riley’s team in 2023, after being favored by more than 22 points in each of their first five games. That success should continue this week before their trip to South Bend next week to take on 10th-ranked Notre Dame.
Their record is clean, but their defense is anything but, which is why their 2-3 ATS record doesn’t match their win/loss record. USC’s defense is 98th in the nation, allowing 404.4 yards per game. Our other concern is how USC responds when holding a big lead, as they did against Colorado last week after opening up a 34-7 lead with 2:54 left in the first half.
The Buffaloes outscored the Trojans 34-14 over the last 32 minutes and some change to give Arizona and Notre Dame something to see on film. Riley said his team took the foot off the pedal; bettors would say they quit. As we conclude our Arizona vs USC odds preview, our decision is clear. Do we put our money behind a far superior NCAAF team, or are we just blindly backing a program that lacks the guts to close down the stretch?
Lessoned Learned?
NCAAF point spreads always seem to tell a story about how the oddsmakers think a game will go. When we see a number like 22, it indicates that the books want money on Arizona. The public will see this number, which is a number of more than three touchdowns, and figure they have a four-score advantage.
That’s exactly the thinking bookmakers want their customers to have. A favorite of exactly 22 points is 11-6-1 ATS (+4.28 units) and 225-213 ATS since 2017. Not good enough to profit with a blind wager, but it does indicate that, more times than not, favorites cover when spreads fall into this range.
We think SC will take their second-half debacle against Colorado seriously, knowing they must be sharp heading into Notre Dame week, take USC -22. That does it for our Arizona vs USC odds preview, all the best to your wagers this weekend.
For NCAAF betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
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