Arkansas vs Ole Miss Odds: Anticipate Scoring in Razorbacks vs Rebels

Ole Miss Looks To Stay Just A Game Out of the SEC West Division Lead

The Arkansas-Ole Miss matchups have quietly turned into one of the most entertaining series and more offensive brilliance could be coming this weekend. This is the sixth time in a row that the Arkansas vs Mississippi odds favor the Rebels when the game is being played in Oxford.

Since the start of the 2022 season, Ole Miss has covered against college football odds and predictions just three times in eight contests when listed as the home favorite. Arkansas is 2-1 against the spread during that span as a road underdog.

Five of the previous eight games between the Razorbacks and Rebels finished as one-score games. There were an average of 73.5 points scored in those NCAAF games.

The Rebels need to win to avoid falling two games behind the winner of the Alabama-Texas A&M contest in the SEC West Division standings with Arkansas one of four SEC teams yet to win in conference play in 2023.

Ole Miss is favored by 12.5 points in this matchup and that is the highest number between the Rebels and Razorbacks since Ole Miss was a 17-point favorite in 2013.

Looking at the NCAAF rankings, Ole Miss moved up five spots to No. 15 in the American Football Coaches Association poll and went from 20th to 16th in the Associated Press poll.

The Rebels are priced at +20000 in the odds to win the national title with Arkansas well back at +50000 in the championship odds.

Razorbacks Looking to Return to Win Column

Arkansas has dropped three straight games with two of those losses coming in conference play. Any flickering hope of being in the running for a spot in the SEC title game would be extinguished with a loss on Saturday.

Arkansas looks to get quarterback KJ Jefferson going after he threw five touchdown passes and four interceptions during the three-game losing streak. That could factor into the Arkansas vs Mississippi odds.

Arkansas did get Raheim Sanders, who was second in the SEC in rushing yards in 2022, back for last week’s game against Texas A&M. He had 34 yards on 11 carries and is tied for 46th in the SEC with 76 yards after missing three games.

The total has gone over in seven of the last eight games played by Arkansas as well as in the last six road games.

Hitting the Ground Running

After finishing with 60 yards or less in each of the first four games of the NCAAF season, Ole Miss running back Quinshon Judkins looked like the player who led the SEC in rushing as a freshman when he ran 33 times for 177 yards in a wild 55-49 win over LSU.

Ole Miss is 6-3 when Judkins rushes for at least 100 yards. He ran for a career-high 214 yards in last year’s loss to Arkansas.

Judkins’ yards per carry have dropped from 5.7 as a freshman to 4.2 through the first five games.

He will face an improved Arkansas defense versus the run as the Razorbacks went from giving up 170 yards and 4.5 yards per carry in 2022 to surrendering 112 yards and 3.4 yards per rushing attempt.

Ole Miss is not afraid to cut quarterback Jaxson Dart loose so keep that in mind when it comes to the Arkansas vs Mississippi odds.

Ole Miss has covered in four of its last five games.

Last Meeting

Raheim Sanders had scoring runs of 20, 8 and 68 yards in three consecutive Arkansas drives to give the Razorbacks with 36-point lead early in the third quarter in a game that went off as a Pick’em.

Ole Miss made things interesting with three touchdowns in the fourth quarter with Jaxson Dart’s touchdown pass to Malik Heath with 2:55 to play putting the game over the total.

Arkansas’ 42-27 win featured the largest margin of victory between the teams since a 30-0 win by host Arkansas in 2014.

What to Expect

There are plenty of reasons why just three Week 6 games involving Power-5 conference teams have higher totals than the 63.5-point mark of this matchup.

Three players rushed for more than 200 yards in last year’s meeting with Judkins and Sanders both back for more. Injuries have slowed both of them so far this season but it could be a chance for each of them to be featured in this SEC matchup.

Arkansas ranks ninth and Ole Miss is tied for 11th in total offense among SEC teams so this has the makings of a typical high-scoring showdown between the Razorbacks and Rebels.

Arkansas has covered in nine of its last 10 games against Ole Miss. The lone exception came in 2019 when the visiting Razorbacks lost 31-17 as 5.5-point underdogs.

Arkansas has lost its last eight games outright as double-digit underdogs. The Razorbacks did cover in four of those matchups.

Since the start of the 2019 season, Ole Miss is 16-0 as a double-digit favorite. The Rebels are 10-5-1 against the spread in those games.

Arkansas tight end Luke Hasz, who is second on the Razorbacks with 16 catches, 253 receiving yards and three touchdown catches, is out with a shoulder injury. For Ole Miss, tight end Hudson Wolfe hasn’t played since the season opener and he is questionable with a shoulder injury while receiver Qua Davis is out.

Arkansas leads the SEC with a +6 turnover margin and 11 takeaways while the three giveaways from Ole Miss are the fewest in the SEC.

As long as Ole Miss isn’t still celebrating the win over LSU, the Rebels should be able to take care of business at home. However, the recent history of this series makes it risky to roll with the Rebels as double-digit favorites. The early money has been nearly split on whether the Razorbacks or Rebels will cover.

For NCAAF betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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