CFB Week 6: Underdogs Who Will Pull An Upset

There’s nothing better than seeing a College Football upset alert on your screen during the season, the problem is, there haven’t been many in 2023. Of the approximately 263 CFB games on the betting board to date, only 55 of them have been won by the dog (20%), costing bettors -89.97 units based on a blind one-unit wager. (Speaking Of Moneyline)

To give a further example of how difficult it’s been to pick a plus-money winner this season, over the last three years underdogs have won at a 26% clip (445-1273-17) and 25% over the last five years (767-2291-17). Since 2005, the betting public has won 25% of their moneyline underdog wagers (-120.54 units). We’ve scoured through the NCAA Football game schedule and past history to come up with three potential plus-money winners.

Boston College Eagles (+130) vs. Army Cadets (-3, 49.5, -150)

In order to find a real shot at an underdog, we have to understand what numbers produce the most straight-up wins. Over the last 19 seasons, a favorite of 3-points has won just 56% of the time. Giving us a better shot (44%) with the Eagles (2-3) than trying to be greedy with a number with a bigger return.

Over the years, if you would have wagered on every 3-point underdog to win outright, a 1 unit wager would now be worth 15.61 units or more than 15 times your investment. Over the past three seasons, the trend has held steady with 44% winners (+3.98 units). Army (2-2) has had a full two weeks to prepare for this game after losing to Syracuse (29-16), but the money continues to flow in on Boston College with 61% of the wagers on BC.

We also see 91% of the moneyline cash also favoring the Eagles, which has helped push this number down from its opener of Army -4 to its current -3, according to up-to-date NCAA Football lines. College Football upset alert #1, take Boston College +130.

Ball State Cardinals (+120) vs. Eastern Michigan Eagles (-2.5, 42.5, -140)

Obviously, if +3 underdogs win more than any other number, then +2.5 dogs are going to be right behind it. Over the last three-plus seasons, betting on 2.5-point dogs straight-up has produced three straight winning seasons with a 66-60-1 record (+16.09 units).

Since 2005, this filter has produced 13.71 units of profit with 47% winners (255-290), quite a step up from the 20% winners we discussed earlier. Ball State (1-4) is in a must-win situation with Toledo and Central Michigan on deck.

Eastern Michigan (2-3) will face a motivated Cardinal defense after getting embarrassed against Georgia Southern and Western Michigan. The line suggests the bookmakers are with us on this with -3 being a peculiar number. College Football upset alert #2. Take Ball State +120.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane (+178) vs. FAU Owls (-3.5, 54, -165)

To try and find some big-money underdog would be throwing money away, but if we move the filter up to -3.5, we’ll find that a +178 underdog like Tulsa (3-2) works fine for the bankroll when they line up against the Owls (1-3). 233-402 is the record when betting a 3.5-point dog straight-up (37%), 45-64 (41%) since 2021.

Again, not a great percentage but bettors are giving themselves more of a chance if the only focus is to bet a plus money team on the moneyline. This season, field goal and a hook dogs are 7-8 (+2.25 units). Expect the Tulsa run defense to make FAU one-dimensional. College Football upset alert #3, take Tulsa +178.

One more note that could be helpful going into the weekend, according to NCAA Football betting stats, if you see that 65% or more of the betting public is on an underdog, try to stay away from teams that are 6.5-7-point dogs.These are games that the public loves because they’re getting a team that is slightly worse than the favorite but returns a better profit with a win.

The problem is, that these wagers have won just 37 times in the last 146 games, a winning percentage of 25% with a loss of 29.57 units. The moral is, don’t chase the big money dogs when the smaller dogs have shown to be a more consistent moneyline wager. That’s it for us, bets of luck with your wagers this weekend.

For NCAAF betting news, odds, analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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