ReliaQuest Bowl – Wisconsin vs LSU Free Picks

The writing was on wall. While LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels never came out and said he would skip the Tigers’ 2023 ReliaQuest Bowl game with Wisconsin, bettors weren’t buying it. On Monday, Daniels made it official; he was entering the NFL Draft and opting-out of the bowl game.

The LSU Tigers opened as 13-point favorites over Wisconsin. The spread soon moved down to 10.5. The line held steady a bit at LSU -8.5 until Daniels announced his decision and then dropped to LSU -7.5. The Tigers have moved from -385 on the moneyline down to -290.

The total opened at 55.5 and has fluctuated slightly, now sitting at 55. The Wisconsin vs LSU free picks article will have plays on the side and over/under, along with the moneyline.

ReliaQuest Bowl

Badgers Getting Little Respect

Wisconsin is the only unranked team playing on New Year’s Day and the only team with five losses. The Badgers also missed playing Penn State and Michigan during the season.

Losing to Ohio State and Iowa are forgivable. Losing to Northwestern and Indiana is a different story.

Wisconsin really only does one thing well on offense and that’s run the football. The Badgers averaged 4.7 yards per rush against NCAAF teams that allowed 4.1 yards per carry.

That’s going to be key for Wisconsin in this game. If the Badgers can run the ball and control the clock, that will help them keep things closer. Wisconsin can’t afford to go three plays and punt too often.

The Badgers are decent on defense, allowing 18.9 points to teams that averaged 23.9 points per game. Wisconsin allowed 20 or more points five times and allow a high of 31 points against Washington State in Week 2. The Badgers allow 3.9 yards per carry to teams averaging 3.9 yards and hold teams to 6.3 yards per pass attempt.

Wisconsin is 5-6-1 against the NCAAF odds and just 4-8 in totals during the season.

All Eyes Will Be on Nussmeier

Garrett Nussmeier will make the move from mop-up time to Prime Time, as he’s expected to be LSU’s starting quarterback.

He didn’t play a whole lot during the season, throwing just 33 passes and completing 17. The Tigers will try to make sure he isn’t asked to do too much. But they will need him to make some plays. So far, wide receivers Malik Nabors or Brian Thomas haven’t followed suit.

But both could be potential first-round picks, so the potential is there.

The Tigers’ running backs will be asked to carry more of the load now and they have a few good ones. But Daniels accounts for roughly 44% of LSU’s rushing yards.

The Tigers are pretty average defensively, allowing 27.8 points to teams that scored 28 points. LSU allows 4.7 yards per rush and 7.7 yards per pass attempt.

The Tigers were 11-1 in totals during the season, a result of a great offense and a defense that allowed some plays. LSU is 7-4-1 against the point spread. The Tigers have several cornerbacks who fell victim to the 2023 college football injuries and will miss the game.

Have Odds Been Adjusted Enough?

The point spread has moved six points from the opening number. The initial move were due to the likelihood Daniels would sit out.

The last move was due to Jayden Daniels making it official. Without Daniels, the 2023 ReliaQuest Bowl is one of the tougher college football bowl predictions to make.

Two-way NCAAF players with Daniels’ skillset are rare. Without seeing Nussmeier in pressure situations, it’s hard to tell if a six-point move is enough.

JAYDEN DANIELS WINS THE HEISMAN 🏆

He joins Joe Burrow as the only LSU QBs to win the award

ELITE COMPANY pic.twitter.com/CAPweCoJFp

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) December 10, 2023

The Wisconsin vs LSU free picks will take Wisconsin +7.5 against the point spread. The Badgers’ defense is the heart of the team and LSU could be hurting offensively.

The Badgers’ offense isn’t great, but the same can be said for the LSU defense. If the Badgers make a serious effort to run the ball, they should have a little success here.

The Badgers +240 on the moneyline is a tough bet to make, since the Tigers are the better team. But Wisconsin is worth a stab at that price. Seeing Daniels sit out could be a blow to team morale.

The Wisconsin vs LSU free picks on the total will be the under 55. If Daniels is worth six points on the spread, he surely has to be worth more than a half-point on the total. It’s hard to imagine the 2023 ReliaQuest Bowl being a high-scoring contest.

For NCAAF betting news, NCAA football game, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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