Bills vs Chargers Odds Preview: The “Trap Game” of the Week?
Buffalo Heads to Inglewood as Week’s Widest Favorites
Bills Favored by Nearly Two TDs Against Chargers
The Buffalo Bills have come roaring back into the spotlight thanks to a pair of wins. Now, they head to Inglewood (Los Angeles) as 12-point favorites against the seemingly moribund Chargers. Los Angeles just axed its head coach and general manager and looks to have given up. But is this narrative worth laying this many points? We explore why the Bills vs Chargers odds could be to navigate.
Bills vs Chargers 
Day/Time:
Records: Bills (8-6)/Chargers (5-9)
Location: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
Streaming: PEAK
How Much Do We Trust Buffalo Now?
A 31-10 win over the Cowboys has seemingly brought Buffalo back in good graces. This was a team listed at +350 to make the playoffs after falling to 6-6 not too long ago. Now, the Bills’ recent NFL results have their lines moving from -7.5 to -12. Part of this is due to the Chargers’ disastrous showing, allowing 63 points to the Raiders. But Buffalo’s record as a wide favorite remains spotty.
Buffalo is only 1-4 against the NFL point spreads (ATS) when favored by 7.5 points or greater. It also failed to cover both games where it was listed at -10 or shorter. Folks had to sweat that Week 6 game against the Giants where Buffalo needed two late touchdowns to win 14-9. It did not come close to covering the 15 points.
The good news is that Buffalo has looked much different since the coaching change. Joe Brady has been more dynamic in his play-calling and the results have been Buffalo scoring 31+ points in three of its last four games. And most promising of all, the Bills gashed Dallas for 266 rushing yards. They easily won despite quarterback Josh Allen having a subpar showing.
But this could be Buffalo’s secret sauce to winning. Allen does not have to be “Superman” every game if the Bills’ running game, led by James Cook, can keep this up. The Bills even snapped their nine-game streak of committing turnovers. Meanwhile, the defense held the Cowboys to just 195 total yards.
If Buffalo is “back”, a blowout win against the Chargers should not be an issue.
Chargers Could Still Have Some Fight in Them
We saw how Buffalo’s change in offensive coordinator improved this NFL team. And last week, the Raiders, who promoted Antonio Pierce after firing Josh McDaniels, dropped 63 points on the Chargers. Las Vegas is 3-3 under him with a +46 point differential. So why can’t it be the same for the Chargers?
“He’s another guy I have a ton of respect for,” Chargers running back Austin Ekeler said about their new head coach, Giff Smith.
A swap in coaching changes the voice in the locker room. Los Angeles is out of the NFL playoff picture. But plenty of players, including Ekeler, are playing for bigger contracts. They still have a lot to prove and will not simply lie down, especially in a home game.
The Chargers are also 4-0 ATS in their last four games as underdogs of 10.5 points or more. This is in direct contrast to being 0-5 ATS in their last five games as dogs. But to topple these Bills vs Chargers odds, they will need to play defense. That has been a wishy-washy thing for them.
L.A. gave up 63 against the Raiders and 31+ points three more times. But the team also held four other opponents to under 20 points. However, the Chargers are also missing plenty of key defenders. Edge rusher Joey Bosa, who typically has short NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds, has been out since Week 10 while three other starters are listed on the injury list.
Given these absences, the Bills may just drop 30+ on the Chargers. If that’s the case, the total of 44 points is too low and should be bet to go ‘over’. This could be the best play in these Bills vs Chargers odds.
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