NFL Favorites 49ers, Ravens Meet in Potential Super Bowl Preview
Ravens vs 49ers Free Picks: San Francisco Climbs to -5.5
The NFL’s Christmas Day tripleheader concludes (8:15 p.m. ET) with a potential Super Bowl preview, as the San Francisco 49ers host the Baltimore Ravens. Both teams head into Week 16, the homestretch of the regular season, as the favorites in their respective conferences.
Much of the betting money has been trending toward the 49ers, who have climbed to 5.5-point favorites after opening at -4.5. They’re also -238 on the moneyline, with the Ravens coming in at +195. The projected total is 46.5, up from 45.
What can bettors expect? Read on as we break down both teams and give our Ravens vs 49ers free picks.
Ravens vs 49ers 
Day/Time:
Location: Levi’s Stadium; Santa Clara, Calif.
Streaming: ABC, ESPN+
Betting Trends
The Baltimore Ravens are 9-5 ATS, including 5-2 away from home. Baltimore’s 64.3% cover rate is tied for the highest in the NFL. The Ravens have also gone Under the projected total in eight of their 14 games.
Meanwhile, the San Francisco 49ers are 8-6 ATS, including 3-3 at home. San Francisco is also 7-6-1 against the Over/Under.
That’s important to remember when assessing our Ravens vs 49ers free picks.
Ravens Following Lamar’s Lead
Baltimore defeated Jacksonville 23-7 in Week 15 to improve to an AFC-best 11-3. The Ravens have won four straight and eight of nine. In doing so, they’ve supplanted themselves as the AFC favorites at +210, not to mention the team to beat outside of San Francisco.
After opening +1800 to win Super Bowl LVIII, Baltimore has seen its odds shrink to +550. As of Tuesday, only the 49ers had better Super Bowl odds (+200).
Whether the Ravens can ultimately cash in on those odds will likely depend on the performance of Lamar Jackson. The two-time Pro Bowl quarterback and former MVP is having another strong season, passing for 3,105 yards and 17 touchdowns compared to seven interceptions.
His 741 rushing yards lead all quarterbacks, and his five rushing touchdowns are fourth behind Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts, Buffalo’s Josh Allen and Minnesota’s Joshua Dobbs. As such, Jackson has seen his MVP odds climb to as high as +400 on some sportsbooks.
Jackson’s dual-threat abilities should help make up for the loss of running back Keaton Mitchell, who suffered a season-ending ACL injury against Jacksonville. The Ravens also lost left tackle Ronnie Stanley to a concussion.
Baltimore has been especially profitable for bettors with a 9-5 record ATS. It’s covered in three of its last four NFL games, including its primetime victory over the Jaguars in which it was a 4-point favorite.
In fact, the Ravens have been favored in every game this season with the exception of its Week 2 victory over Cincinnati (+3). Keep that in mind when analyzing our Ravens vs 49ers free picks.
Purdy Takes Over as MVP Favorite
The San Francisco 49ers rolled past Arizona 45-29 in Week 15 to move to 11-3. Winners of five straight since the bye, they now own the best record in the NFL.
They’re a -110 favorite to win the NFC, the only NFL team on the board with better than plus NFL odds. On top of that, their Super Bowl odds have climbed from +900 to +200.
Quarterback Brock Purdy has had a big hand in San Francisco’s resurgence, establishing himself as a -200 frontrunner for MVP. The former Mr. Irrelevant has passed for 3,795 yards, 29 touchdowns and only seven interceptions.
He’s been especially productive of late, with multiple touchdown passes in five of his last six games. San Francisco ranks second in the NFL in total offense, averaging 402.6 yards to go with 30.6 points.
Running back Christian McCaffrey leads the NFL with 1,292 rushing yards on 244 carries (5.3 average). He’s scored 20 touchdowns (13 rushing, 7 receiving), including at least one in 13 of his 14 games. The two-time Pro Bowler is now +150 to win NFL Offensive Player of the Year, trailing only Miami receiver Tyreek Hill (-200).
San Francisco has been favored in every game this season, by as few as 1 point and as many as 14.5. It’s covered in three of its last four games, including last week against Arizona in which it was a 12-point favorite.
The 49ers have also hit the Over eight times, matching the third highest rate in the NFL (57.1%) according to NFL scores and odds.
Like Baltimore, San Francisco is dealing with some key injures. Defensive linemen Arik Armstead (knee) and Javon Hargrave (hamstring) are both questionable for Monday.
Handicapping the Game
San Francisco may be the NFL’s hottest team, but Baltimore is a close second. The Ravens, with an MVP contender in Jackson and the No. 2 ranked defense (287.9 yards allowed per game), loom as the biggest threat to the 49ers’ Super Bowl hopes.
While the 49ers are deserving favorites at home where they’re 3-3 ATS and 5-1 OU, this spread’s a tad too high. Look for Baltimore, with its 5-2 record ATS on the road, to keep this relatively close.
While we don’t think Baltimore will win, we’d play this down to +4.
For NFL picks and parlays, NFL schedule this week and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
