Biggest NFL Week 15 Underdogs: Familiarity Breeds Contempt

Longshots Face Potentially Vulnerable Favorites

Last week proved just how precarious wide favorites are. The Ravens needed overtime to beat the Rams as 7-point favorites while the Dolphins lost as the biggest favorites at -13. Will there be a repeat this week? The largest NFL Week 15 underdogs face contenders they are familiar with. Two are divisional NFL games and two are home teams. So which of the biggest underdogs can turn a profit?

Not too long ago, these playoff rivals would be lined tightly on the NFL betting lines. But here we are with the 3-10 Patriots being spotted over a touchdown. That’s good enough for us as the problematic Chiefs could make them a top NFL Week 15 underdog. Patrick Mahomes may be targeting officials with his ire. But his receivers have pushed him to the edge.

No one on the Chiefs outside of their tight ends can catch. When Rashee Rice is your best receiver, you’re going to have issues. The Chiefs are 1-3 in their last four games and have been held to under 20 points in all these games. Mahomes is averaging an 85.9 passer rating with just six touchdowns in his last four games.

And you want us to lay -7.5 on the Chiefs? The Patriots have the worst offense in the NFL (13 points per game). But its defense is ranked 14th in scoring and eighth in total yards. The Patriots stuff the running game, have the best red-zone defense (45.9%), and get 10 days to prepare. Take the points or pass. Pick: New England Patriots +7.5 (-110)

There is trouble in Miami’s paradise. Not only did the Dolphins blow the game to Tennessee but star receiver Tyreek Hill has an ankle injury. That’s bad news as Miami is 1-3 when Hill is held to under 100 receiving yards and 0-3 when he fails to score a touchdown. On top of that, there is a thunderstorm that will impact the NFL scores and odds.

The forecast still shows wind speeds as high as 35 miles per hour. If the Dolphins have trouble passing the ball or kicking field goals, it will be hard to lay nine points on this team. Miami is just 2-3 against the spread (ATS) in its last five games.

Meanwhile, The Jets are coming off an upset over Houston where Zach Wilson put up the best game of his young career. We’re not crowning Wilson as one of the best NFL players. But if he can manage this blustery weather, the Jets elite defense will do the rest. Pick: New York Jets +9 (-110)

We’re tempted to take a shot on the Cardinals’ moneyline. However, this team already used up its “shocking upset” card in Week 3 against Dallas. We have no delusions: San Francisco wins. But we do like the points on Arizona Cardinals, which has an extra week to prepare for San Francisco, which could be due for another disappointing result.

The 49ers are riding high with five straight dominant wins. But they could let their guard down for just a tad here as they look ahead to Baltimore in a nationally televised game on Christmas Day. A dozen points is a lot and the room for a backdoor cover from Arizona, as it nearly did in the Week 4 game, makes this team a bettable NFL Week 15 underdog .

And it’s not just assumption here. The Cardinals are 4-2 ATS in their last six games. They are 2-2 in their last four and the losses to the Rams and Texans are aging bette. Pick: Arizona Cardinals +12 (-110)

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